This site is for archive purposes. Please visit www.eliamep.gr for latest updates
Go to Top

Library

A global trade model for the euro area

D’Agostino, Antonello, Modugno, Michele, Osbat, Chiara, (2016), “A global trade model for the euro area”, European Central Bank, 9 December We propose a model for analyzing euro area trade based on the interaction between macroeconomic and trade variables. First, we show that macroeconomic variables are necessary to generate accurate short-term trade forecasts; this result can be explained by the high correlation between trade and macroeconomic variables, with the latter being released …Read More

The political economy of macroprudential policy

Merler, Silvia, (2016), “The political economy of macroprudential policy”, Bruegel, 12 December What’s at stake: the emergence of renewed interest in macroprudential policy has characterised the aftermath of the great recession. There is not yet full agreement on what the tasks of macroprudential policy is or how it should be carried out, but there is a clear understanding that there is an important political economy dimension to it. We review …Read More

Misallocating capital and labour across firms: Trends and determinants in selected Eurozone economies

Gamberoni, Elisa, Giordano, Claire, Lopez-Garcia, Paloma, (2016), “Misallocating capital and labour across firms: Trends and determinants in selected Eurozone economies”, VoxEu, 13 December An efficient allocation of inputs across firms is a necessary condition to boost TFP growth. This column presents evidence that in large Eurozone economies, capital misallocation trended upwards in the period 2002-2012 while labour misallocation dynamics were flatter. Uncertainty and credit market frictions were strongly associated with the …Read More

The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity

Aiyar, Shekhar, Ebeke, Christian, Shao, Xiaobo, (2016), “The Impact of Workforce Aging on European Productivity”, IMF Working Paper WP/16/238, December The age-distribution of Europe’s workforce has shifted towards older workers over the past few decades, a process expected to accelerate in the years ahead.. This paper studies the effect of the aging of the workforce on labor productivity, identifies the main transmission channels, and examines what policies might mitigate the effects …Read More

Bail-in: Limits and work in progress

Barba Navaretti, Giorgio, Calzolari, Giacomo, Pozzolo, Alberto, (2016), “Bail-in: Limits and work in progress”, VoxEu, 12 December In the years since the Global Crisis, there has been substantial public opposition to taxpayer-funded bailouts of financial institutions. Reflecting this sentiment, a cornerstone of the EU’s post-crisis resolution framework is that losses be borne by private investors and creditors. This column surveys some of the details that need to be worked out …Read More

Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity : Crossing the Tipping Point

Gaspar, Vitor, Jaramillo, Laura, Wingender, Philippe, (2016), “Political Institutions, State Building, and Tax Capacity : Crossing the Tipping Point”, IMF Working Paper WP/16/233, November An empirical finding by Gaspar, Jaramillo and Wingender (2016) shows that once countries cross a tax-to-GDP threshold of around 12¾ percent, real GDP per capita increases sharply and in a sustained manner over the following decade. In this paper, we attempt via four case studies—Spain, China, Colombia, …Read More

Eurozone QE and bank profitability: Why it is too early to taper

Demertzis, Maria, B.Wolff, Guntram, (2016), “Eurozone QE and bank profitability: Why it is too early to taper”, Bruegel, 8 December In the eyes of the critics, the quantitative easing programs have been of little help to growth and inflation and have instead been an attack on savers, undermining the profitability of banks and insurances. Do these arguments stand scrutiny? Relevant Posts Hüttl, Pia, Merler, Silvia, (2016), “An update: Sovereign bond holdings …Read More

Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?

Gaspar, Vitor, Jaramillo, Laura, Wingender, Philippe, (2016), “Tax Capacity and Growth: Is there a Tipping Point?”, IMF Working Paper WP/16/234, November Is there a minimum tax to GDP ratio associated with a significant acceleration in the process of growth and development? We give an empirical answer to this question by investigating the existence of a tipping point in tax-to-GDP levels. We use two separate databases: a novel contemporary database covering 139 …Read More

Challenges to debt sustainability in advanced economies

Dabrowski, Marek, (2016), “Challenges to debt sustainability in advanced economies”, Bruegel, 8 December The gross general government debt-to-GDP ratios in many advanced economies have reached the highest levels in peacetime history and continue to grow, putting into question sovereign solvency in these economies. Relevant Posts Dabrowski, Marek, (2016), “Are advanced economies at risk of falling into debt traps?”, Bruegel, 10 November Marsh, Chris, Nagly, Dominik, Pagoulatos, George, Papaioannou, Elias, (2016), …Read More

Can Trump Save the Euro?

Gros, Daniel, (2016), “Can Trump Save the Euro?”, Project Syndicate, 6 December Europe has just endured two more difficult tests. While Austrian voters rejected the possibility of the European Union getting its first far-right head of state, Italians delivered a stinging rebuke to their government – and opened the way for populist forces to come to power. Add to that a Brexit that has yet to unfold and the eurozone’s …Read More