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Sovereign spreads in the Eurozone on the rise: Redenomination risk versus political risk

De Santis, Roberto, (2017), “Sovereign spreads in the Eurozone on the rise: Redenomination risk versus political risk”, VoxEu, 16 March French sovereign spreads have risen in recent months, coinciding with debate over the euro ahead of the country’s presidential elections in May. Italian sovereign spreads have been rising since the beginning of 2016. This column argues that investors are not pricing a break-up of France from the Eurozone. Most likely, they …Read More

What happened to global banking after the crisis?

Schoenmaker, Dirk, (2017), “What happened to global banking after the crisis?”, Bruegel, 14 March The global financial crisis allegedly led to the end of global banking. However, we find that reports of the demise of global banking are premature. Among the global systemically important banks, we find that there has been a shift of business from the global European banks to the more domestic Asian banks, which are gradually increasing their …Read More

Europe’s Bailout Misery

Ashworth, Marcus, (2017), “Europe’s Bailout Misery”, Bloomberg Gadfly, 13 March Europe’s tale of two rescue funds is morphing into a worrying saga. The outlook for the region’s original crisis bailout vehicle, the European Financial Stability Fund, to raise sufficient long-term funds to do its job is getting trickier. Despite last week being a pretty decent one for bond issuance, the EFSF stayed on the sidelines. Meanwhile, its more-popular sister fund, the European Stability …Read More

An update: Sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of QE

Huttl, Pia, Goncalves Raposo, Ines, (2017), “An update: Sovereign bond holdings in the euro area – the impact of QE”, Bruegel, 9 March Since the ECB’s announcement of its QE programme in January 2015, national central banks have been buying government and national agency bonds. In this post we look at the effect of QE on sectoral holdings of government bonds, updating our calculations published in May and November 2016. …Read More

Rethinking GDP

Coyle, Diane, (2017), “Rethinking GDP”, IMF Finance & Decelopment 54(1), March Why does economic growth matter? The answer for economists is that it measures an important component of social progress—namely, economic welfare, or how much benefit members of society get from the way resources are used and allocated. A look at GDP per capita over the long haul tells the story of innovation and escape from the Malthusian trap of …Read More

Whither Economic Growth?

Crafts, Nicholas, (2017), “Whither Economic Growth?”, IMF Finance & Development 54(1), March It seems like only yesterday that the so-called new economy was ascendant and growth expectations were buoyant. But today there is a widespread fear of a future of secular stagnation, in which very slow growth will be the new normal—especially in advanced economies. While it is clear that the turn-of-the-century optimism was not justified, it is also possible …Read More

Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises

Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio, Martin, Fernando Eguren, Thwaites, Gregory, (2017), “Foreign booms, domestic busts: The global dimension of banking crises”, VoxeU, 23 February Banking crises tend to happen in ‘waves’ across countries. In examining why this occurs, this column shows how foreign financial developments in general, and global credit growth in particular, are powerful predictors of domestic banking crises. The channels seem to be financial rather than related to trade, and include transmission …Read More

Don’t give up on Europe as an investment destination

Gallo, Alberto, (2017), “Don’t give up on Europe as an investment destination”, LSE, 21 February Politically, the year 2017 looks like a minefield for Europe. Economically, however, the situation is much more promising: growth and inflation continue to accelerate and in the latest indices of economic surprises Europe has been faring better than the US. ECB stimulus is starting to work, unemployment is slowly falling and consumer confidence is rising. Relevant …Read More

New eBook: Misallocation in Europe during the Global Crisis: Some stylised facts

Banerjee, Biswajit, Coricelli, Fabrizio, (2017), “New eBook: Misallocation in Europe during the Global Crisis: Some stylised facts “, VoxEu, 8 February Financial markets and the banking sectors in several European countries are still struggling to recover from the Global crisis, with many instances of unresolved problems involving bad loans and fragility of banks. This column introduces a new CEPR eBook, drawing on research presented at the first conference of the European …Read More

Strengthening Economic Resilience: Insights From The Post-1970 Record Of Severe Recessions And Financial Crises

Caldera-Sánchez, Aida , de Serres,  Alain, Gori, Filippo, Hermansen, Mikkel, Röhn, Oliver, (2017), “Strengthening Economic Resilience: Insights From The Post-1970 Record Of Severe Recessions And Financial Crises”, OECD, December 2016 No. 20, February The global financial crisis marked a turning point for the assessment of macroeconomic risks in developed countries. Following a period characterised by positive growth dynamics and overall macroeconomic stability, the 2008-09 economic turmoil served as a powerful reminder …Read More