Hugh, E. (2014) “Does The Secular Stagnation Theory Have Any Sort of Validity?“, A Fistful of Euros: European Opinion Blog, 20 October.   In a number of blog-posts (Paul Krugman’s Bicycling Problem, On Bubble Business Bound, The Expectations Fairy) I have examined some of the implications of the theory of secular stagnation. But I haven’t up to now argued why I think the hypothesis that Japan and some parts of …Read More

Reinhart, M. C., Trebesch, C. (2014) “Sovereign-debt relief and its aftermath: The 1930s, the 1990s, the future?“, VoxEU Organisation, 21 October.   To work towards resolving Europe’s ongoing debt crisis this column looks to the past. From the recent emerging market debt crisis (1980s-2000s) and the interwar episode of the 1920s-1930s we learn that debt write-downs and defaults are able to be postponed but not prevented. Punishment for default is …Read More

Dolan, E. (2014) “Why Should Europe (or Anyone Else) Fear Deflation?“, Economonitor Blog, 20 October.   Europe is fearful as it teeters on the brink of deflation. As the chart shows, September consumer prices in the eurozone were just 0.3 percent higher than in the same month a year earlier. That is far below the 2 percent inflation target set by the European Central Bank (ECB). Five countries were already …Read More

Mitchell, B. (2014) “The UK recovery is a false dawn“, Bill Mitchell Blog: Modern Monetary Theory … macroeconomic reality, 18 October.   A few weeks ago (October 1, 2014), I wrote in this blog – British economic growth shows that on-going deficits work – that the British Chancellor was overseeing an expanding fiscal deficit and public debt ratio, which despite the rhetoric to the contrary, was supporting growth and helping …Read More

Michaelides, Al., (2014), “Cyprus: from boom to bail-in”, Economic Policy, Vol. 29, Issue 80, pp. 639-689. This is a case study of how a country nearly reached bankruptcy in March 2013, within five years of entering the eurozone. The magnitude of the requested assistance is extremely large relative to GDP (100%) and studying this event provides useful lessons for avoiding such crises in the future. The crisis resulted from a …Read More

Mitchell, B. (2014) “The German ship is sinking under the weight of its own delusions“, Bill Mitchell Blog: Modern Monetary Theory… Macroeconomic Reality Blog, 16 October.   Eurostat’s recent publication (October 14, 2014) – Industrial production down by 1.8% in euro area – rightfully sends further alarm bells throughout policy makers in Europe, except I suppose Germany where denial seems to be rising as its industrial production levels fall to …Read More

Wren-Lewis, S. (2014) “The mythical Phillips curve?“, Mainly Macro Blog, 14 Οκτωβρίου.   Suppose you had just an hour to teach the basics of macroeconomics, what relationship would you be sure to include? My answer would be the Phillips curve. With the Phillips curve you can go a long way to understanding what monetary policy is all about. My faith in the Phillips curve comes from simple but highly plausible …Read More

Jordà, Ο., Taylor, A. & Schularick, M. (2014) “The great mortgaging“, VoxEU Organisation, 12 October.   The Global Crisis prompted Lord Adair Turner to ask if the growth of the financial sector has been socially useful, catalysing an ongoing debate. This column turns to economic history to investigate whether the financial sector is too big. New long-run, disaggregated data on banks’ balance sheets show that mortgage lending by banks has …Read More