Emerson, M. (2014) “Trade policy issues in the Wider Europe – that led to war and not yet to peace“, EU Foreign Policy, CEPS Working Documents, 16 July.   This paper looks at the trade policy landscape of the EU and the wider Europe, with a focus on issues arising from the signature on 27 June 2014 of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreements (DCFTAs) between the EU and three …Read More

Benkovskis, K. & Woerz, J. (2014) “Lower import prices = 100% welfare gains? Not necessarily: don′t forget the impact of consumer taste and product quality“, VoxEU Organisation, 15 Ιουλίου.   Import price statistics may not be a reliable indicator of welfare gains. They must adequately reflect the fact that consumers value variety, and that consumer tastes and product quality change over time. This column evaluates existing findings, and introduces new …Read More

Janssen, R. (2014) “European Wage Depression Since 1999“, Social Europe Journal, 30 May.   Probably one of the most popular slogans of the entire European Semester is the catchphrase that wages should be aligned with productivity. The reason for its popularity is that this phrase can be used with a lot of flexibility. On the one hand, the Commission can make use of it to discipline wages and undermine national …Read More

Sayek, S. & Taskin, F. (2014) “Lessons from history for the European Financial Crisis“, VoxEU Organisation, 05 July.   The European Monetary Union is unprecedented, but the Eurozone Crisis is not. This column draws upon the experiences of previous banking crises, and compares the Eurozone Crisis countries. Like Japan before the 1992 crisis, Spain and Ireland had property bubbles fuelled by domestic credit. The Greek crisis is very distinct from …Read More

Berger, D. & Vavra, J. (2014) “Durable consumption during recessions“, VoxEU Organisation, 03 July.   Various stimulus programmes have been implemented in a response to the decline in consumption of durables since the Recession. This column argues that standard analysis of such programmes could be overstating their effectiveness. Aggregate durable spending is much less responsive to stimulus during recessions. Microeconomic frictions lead households to adjust their durable holdings less frequently. …Read More

Borio, C. & Disyatat, P. (2014) “Low interest rates and secular stagnation: Is debt a missing link?“, VoxEU Organisation, 25 June.   Real interest rates have fallen to historic lows, and some economists are concerned that an era of secular stagnation has begun. This column highlights the role of policy frameworks and financial factors – particularly debt – in linking low real interest rates and sluggish economic growth. Policies that …Read More

Ball, L. (2014) “The Great Recession’s long-term damage“, VoxEU Organisation, 01 July.   Whereas textbook macroeconomic theory suggests that output should return to potential after a recession, there is mounting evidence that deep recessions have highly persistent effects on output. This column reports estimates of the long-term damage caused by the Great Recession. In most countries in the sample, the loss of potential output – 8.4% on average – has …Read More

M. Buch, C., Chapman, J. & Goldberg, L. (2014) “Transmission of liquidity risk through global banks: An International Banking Research Network project“, VoxEU Organisation, 24 June.   The international transmission of liquidity shocks is one of the key questions of banking globalisation. This column discusses a project of central bank researchers from around the world who have been exploring the role of global banks in the transmission of liquidity shocks. …Read More

Darvas, Z. & Hüttl, P. (2014) “The long haul: debt sustainability analysis“, Working Paper – European Macroeconomics, Bruegel Association, 18 June.   This working paper details and updates the debt sustainability analysis of Darvas, Sapir and Wolff (2014) for Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The goal is not the calculation of a baseline scenario which best corresponds to our views, but to set-up a baseline scenario which broadly corresponds to official …Read More

Illing, G. (2014) “Should the Euro Area Be Concerned About Deflation?“, INTERECONOMICS, Vol 49, No. 3· May/ June 2014.   During the past few years, headline inflation (the change in the harmonised consumer price index, HCPI) in the euro area has fallen steadily, from three per cent at the end of 2011 to 0.7 per cent in April 2014. It is now far below the ECB’s target rate of inflation …Read More