Cohen-Setton, Jeremie, (2015), “The puzzle of technical dis-employment and productivity slowdown”, Bruegel, 7 December What’s at stake: Larry Summers made an important speech a few weeks ago at a Peterson Institute conference on the productivity slowdown arguing it is hard to see how recent technical change could both be a major source of dis-employment and not be associated with productivity improvement. Relevant Posts Caliendo, Marco, Schmidl, Ricarda, (2015), “Youth Unemployment and Active …Read More
We are shrinking! The neglected drop in Gross Planet Product
A.G. van Bergeijk, Peter, (2015), “We are shrinking! The neglected drop in Gross Planet Product”, Voxeu, 7 December The analysis and forecasts of the IMF are well covered in the press. This column deals with a less noted development in the data provided by the IMF, namely the nominal decrease in Gross Planet Product. Since the IMF forecast both positive growth and positive inflation, the nominal shrinkage of GPP puts into …Read More
Old Wine In New Bottles: The Economic Priorities Of The European Commission In 2016
Schuster, Joachim, (2015), “Old Wine In New Bottles: The Economic Priorities Of The European Commission In 2016”, Social Europe Journal, 4 December A new annual cycle of EU economic policy coordination – aka the European Semester – has begun with the European Commission’s (EC) latest Annual Growth Survey (AGS). The AGS sets out the EC’s views on the EU’s social and economic priorities and provides the building blocks for the …Read More
Distributional consequences of asset price inflation in the Eurozone
Adam, Klaus, Tzamourani, Panagiota, (2015), “Distributional consequences of asset price inflation in the Eurozone”, Voxeu, 3 December. Central banks’ unconventional monetary policy measures are often accompanied by asset price changes. This column investigates the distributional effects associated with asset price increases. The findings show that house price increases lead to a significant decrease in net wealth inequality in the Eurozone, whereas equity price increases lead to a significant rise in inequality. Bond …Read More
EZ internal devaluations: Evidence on negative demand spillovers
Decressin, Jörg, Loungani, Prakash, (2015), “EZ internal devaluations: Evidence on negative demand spillovers”, Voxeu, 2 December. Internal devaluations have been suggested as a possible policy option for countries in a currency union facing large external deficits. These policy actions seek to restore competitiveness by replicating the outcomes of an external devaluation. This column examines wage moderation as a potential means of internal devaluation for EZ countries. If pursued by several countries, wage moderation …Read More
Liquidity Helps Financial Market Participants, Not Businesses And Households
Kay, John, (2015), “Liquidity Helps Financial Market Participants, Not Businesses And Households”, Social Europe, 1 December. Nothing illustrates more starkly the difference between the preoccupations of financial market participants and the needs of businesses and households than the subject of liquidity.Last week the Bank of England held an open forum to discuss what the financial sector contributes to the real economy, and I took part in a discussion on the role …Read More
Have central banks lost their ability to control inflation?
Claeys, Grégory, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Have central banks lost their ability to control inflation?”, Bruegel Blog, 1 December. The potential effects of global integration on inflation dynamics, and whether this could affect the ability of central banks to fulfil their mandates. Relevant Posts Claeys, Grégory, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?”, Bruegel Publlications, Issue 18, 12 November. Blanchard, Olivier, Cerutti, Eugenio, Summers, Lawrence, (2015), “Inflation and Activity – Two …Read More
Unlearning economic paradigms
Cohen-Setton, Jeremie, (2015), “Unlearning economic paradigms”, Bruegel publications, 30 November What’s at stake: Both the crisis, its aftermath, and the empirical econ revolution have changed our understanding of economics. Conventional wisdoms about the supply side of the economy, the length of the short run, or the international adjustment process are all being challenged. Even conventional microeconomic wisdoms about the role of minimum wages and welfare programs are being challenged by …Read More
Iceland’s seven meagre years
Gylfason, Thorvaldur, (2015), “Iceland’s seven meagre years”, Voxeu, 26 November. Seven years after its crisis, Iceland has staged an economic recovery. This column suggests that despite its overall success, the current economic situation in Iceland is not devoid of problems. Insufficient competition in certain areas keeps real wages lower in Iceland compared to other Nordic countries. The current government in power seems not to have learned enough from the crash of 2008. …Read More
The ECB and politics in an era of low interest rates
Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “The ECB and politics in an era of low interest rates”, Bruegel publications, 25 November The reasons for this are the subject of heated debate, but the fact is that there have been long-term changes in global savings and investments due to demographic and structural factors. Monetary policy has not caused this situation, yet it has to find a response. All the same, monetary policy cannot address …Read More