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Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise?

Sinn, Hans-Werner, (2016), “Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise?”, Project Syndicate, 27 September Almost exactly eight years ago, the Lehman Brothers collapse plunged the global economy into recession. The interbank market collapsed, and the entire industrialized world was thrown into the worst crisis since the end of World War II. Though central banks have maintained ultra-low interest rates, the crisis hasn’t yet been fully overcome. On the contrary, numerous economies, such as …Read More

Bye-bye covered interest parity

Borio, Claudio, McCauley, Robert, McGuire, Patrick, Sushko, Vladyslav, (2016), “Bye-bye covered interest parity”, VoxEU, 28 September Covered interest parity is close to a physical law in international finance, yet it has been consistently violated since the Global Crisis. Violations since 2014, once banks had strengthened their balance sheets and regained easy access to funding, are especially puzzling. This column argues that the violation reflects a combination of foreign exchange hedging demand …Read More

Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?

Drechsler, Itamar, Drechsel, Thomas, Marques-Ibanez, David, Schnabl, Philipp, (2016), “Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?”, The Journal of Finance, 14 September We analyze lender of last resort (LOLR) lending during the European sovereign debt crisis. Using a novel data set on all central bank lending and collateral, we show that weakly capitalized banks took out more LOLR loans and used riskier collateral than strongly capitalized banks. We also find …Read More

Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?

Claeys, Grégory, (2016), “Low long-term rates: bond bubble or symptom of secular stagnation?”, Bruegel, 26 September Yields on European sovereign bonds have reached historically low levels in 2016. This secular decline in long-term sovereign yields is not limited to the euro area. Why are interest rates currently so low? Are low long-term trates justified by fundamental factors or is it an artificial phenomenon? Relevant Posts Kozlowski, Julian, Veldkamp, Laura, Venkateswaran, Venky, (2016), “The …Read More

Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database

Bergh, Andreas, Dackehag, Margareta, Rode, Martin, “Are OECD policy recommendations for public sector reform biased against welfare states? Evidence from a new database”, European Journal of Political Economy, 20 September Policy advice by the OECD has long been at the heart of academic debates on welfare state reform, with frequent claims questioning the ideological orientation of recommendations. This paper constructs an indicator of perceived reform need for 24 countries, quantifying the policy advice contained in …Read More

Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis

Bolton, Patrick, Freixas, Xavier, Gambacorta, Leonardo,  Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, (2016), “Relationship and Transaction Lending in a Crisis”, The Review of Financial Studies, 7 June We study how relationship lending and transaction lending vary over the business cycle. We develop a model in which relationship banks gather information on their borrowers, allowing them to provide loans to profitable firms during a crisis. Because of the services they provide, operating costs of relationship banks are higher than those of …Read More

Product market reforms under the microscope

Gal, Peter, Hijzen, Alexander, (2016), “Product market reforms under the microscope”, VoxEU, 27 September Product market reforms are seen as a way to boost output in advanced economies, but we know little about their short-term impact. This column presents data from 18 advanced economies that reveal large differences in the potential upside of reform depending on the sector in which a firm operates, its size, and its financial health. Relevant Posts …Read More

The Promise of Bank Mergers

Vives, Xavier, (2016), “The Promise of Bank Mergers”, Project Syndicate, 23 September The banking business has fallen on hard times. The combination of persistent low interest rates, increasing regulatory compliance costs, and the rise of new competitors taking advantage of financial technologies (fintech for short) has produced, in Europe in particular, excess capacity and low profitability – and a strong temptation to merge. In a difficult market, mergers – by …Read More

Negative interest rate policies: Channels and consequences

Arteta, Carlos, Kose, M Ayhan, Stocker, Marc, Taskin, Temel, (2016), “Negative interest rate policies: Channels and consequences”, VoxEu, 26 September Against a background of persistently weak growth and low inflation expectations, a number of central banks have implemented negative interest rate policies over the past few years. This column argues that such policies could help provide additional monetary policy stimulus, as long as policy interest rates are only modestly negative …Read More

The European VAT Oxymoron: A pragmatic solution for welfare, especially in times of crisis?

Alexandris Polomarkakis, Konstantinos, (2016), “The European VAT Oxymoron: A pragmatic solution for welfare, especially in times of crisis?”, Journal of International and Comparative Social Policy, 26 August VAT is an important but at the same time long neglected issue in social policy literature. The way in which taxes are levied has important implications for citizens in terms of equity and efficiency effects. Rate diversification is embedded in VAT planning across …Read More