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Crisis, learning and policy change in the European Union

Kamkhaji, Jonathan C., Radaelli, Claudio M., (2016), “Crisis, learning and policy change in the European Union”, Journal of European Public Policy, 20 Αpril What is the causal relationship between crisis, learning and change? How did causality unfold in the key years of 2009–2010 when the European Union had to face the most formidable attacks to the single currency and responded with substantial reforms of the euro area? We question the conventional identification of …Read More

The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle – and what it means

Ford, Nicholas, Horioka, Charles Yuji, (2016), “The ‘real’ explanation of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle – and what it means”, Voxeu, 5 Μay The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle concerns why levels of investment and saving are correlated across countries. This is puzzling because financial markets can rapidly move capital between countries, and there is no reason why the best investment opportunities should be in a saver’s home country. This column posits a disarmingly simple solution to this longstanding …Read More

The FDI premium from EU membership

Bruno, Randolph, Campos, Nauro F., Estrin, Saul, Tian, Meng, (2016),  “The FDI premium from EU membership”, Voxeu, 5 Μay The current Brexit debate has highlighted questions about the benefits and costs of EU membership. This column considers the effect of membership on foreign direct investment (FDI). Using several measures, EU membership is found to increase FDI inflows by 14–38% between 1985 and 2013. These results support arguments for economic integration, and indicate that, like …Read More

Output gaps and unemployment by age and gender

Dixon, Robert, Lim, Guay, Van Ours, Jan, (2016), “Output gaps and unemployment by age and gender”, Voxeu, 3 Μay Okun’s law describes the positive empirical relationship between unemployment and the output gap. This column explores how this relationship differs depending on age and gender, taking into account different labour market institutions. Using data for 20 OECD countries over three decades, the authors find that the effect of Okun’s relationship decreases with age. Labour market …Read More

Reinforcing the Eurozone and protecting an open society

Corsetti, Giancarlo, Koijen, Ralph S.J., Reichlin, Lucrezia,  Reis, Ricardo, Rey, Hélène, Weder di Mauro, Beatrice, (2016), “Reinforcing the Eurozone and protecting an open society”, Voxeu, 4 May The sovereign debt and refugee crises prove that Europe has failed to design institutions robust enough to weather difficult times. Coordinated actions are needed, but these are difficult to implement because of the political climate. This column presents the 2nd Monitoring the Eurozone report, in which the authors propose …Read More

Completing the Eurozone banking union: What must be done

Borri, Nicola, Reichlin, Pietro, (2016), “Completing the Eurozone banking union: What must be done”, Voxeu, 4 Μay Most commentators agree that a European banking union would end the ‘deadly embrace’ between creditors and governments. This column argues that a banking union would be welcome, but that current proposals are dogged with problems. To resolve these, we should stop discussing debt restructuring and instead enhance the borrowing capacity of the European Stability Mechanism. A …Read More

The Next Global Boom – and Bust

Johnson, Simon, (2016),  “The Next Global Boom – and Bust”, Project Syndicate, 29 April The mood at the International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings here earlier this month was grim. The latest IMF forecast for global growth has been revised downward yet again – suggesting the world will grow at an annual rate of just over 3% this year and again in 2017. If realized, this would be a dismal performance. Before …Read More

Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking

Ari,Anil, (2016), ” Sovereign risk and bank risk-taking”, ECB Working Paper Series No 1894, April 2016 In European countries recently hit by a sovereign debt crisis, the share of domestic sovereign debt held by the national banking system has sharply increased, raising issues in their economic and Önancial resilience, as well as in policy design. This paper examines these issues by analyzing the banking equilibrium in a model with optimizing banks and depositors. …Read More

Fighting deflation with unconventional fiscal policy

D’Acunto, Francesco, Hoang, Daniel, Weber, Michael, (2016), “Fighting deflation with unconventional fiscal policy”, VoxEu, 26 Απριλίου The Eurozone faces zero inflation paired with low economic growth. With monetary policy hobbled by the zero lower bound, it is time to think more broadly. This column discusses the theoretical and empirical evidence on ‘unconventional fiscal policy’.  Such policies aim to increase growth and inflation in a budget-neutral fashion, while keeping the tax …Read More

Banks and the political economy of the sovereign debt crisis in italy and spain

Quaglia, Lucia, Royo, Sebastian, (2014), “Banks and the political economy of the sovereign debt crisis in Italy and Spain“, CES papers This paper sets out to explain why Spain experienced a full-fledged sovereign debt crisis and had to resort to euroarea financial assistance for its banks, whereas Italy did not. It undertakes a structured comparison, dissecting the sovereign debt crisis into a banking crisis and a balance of payments crisis. It …Read More