David Miles, Ugo Panizza, Ricardo Reis, Ángel Ubide (2017), “Elusive inflation and the Great Recession”, VoxEU,25 October
The chair of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen, recently stated that “[t]he biggest surprise in the US economy this year has been inflation” (Yellen 2017). The Federal Reserve expected that the rapid decline in unemployment – from 4.8% in January to 4.2% in September, below the Federal Reserve’s estimate of the natural rate of unemployment – would have led to an increase in inflation. Yet, core inflation declined from 1.9% to 1.3% during that period. The recent World Economic Outlook (IMF 2017) documents that the insensitivity of inflation to slack is pervasive across the developed world.
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