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World Cup Economics

S. Mereler, (2018), «World Cup Economics», Bruegel, Ιούλιος

Looking for fancy statistics that will make you look cool at the pub? Goldman Sachs has you covered with their report “The World Cup and Economics 2018”. It features an interview with Carlo Ancelotti, explains GS’ predictive model (which, like all of us in the pub, overestimated Germany and underestimated Sweden), and presents a one-page report for each participant. It also has a very funny section on World Cup trends viewed through a (light-hearted) economic lens. For example, you may not have noticed the relationship between the number of offsides and mutual trust numbers. Ending up ‘beyond enemy lines’ more frequently as a strike force may suggest there is an impulse to ‘do it alone’ rather than attack as a mutually reinforcing group. Indeed, the number of offside calls per attacking action for each team in the 2014 World Cup was negatively correlated with the level of mutual trust reported by the World Value Survey for the respective country.