Augustin, Patrick, Boustanifar, Hamid, Breckenfelder, Johannes, Schnitzler, Jan, (2016), “Sovereign to corporate risk spillovers”, Working Paper Series No. 1878, European Central Bank, Ιανουάριος Using the announcement of the first Greek bailout on April 11, 2010, we quantify significant spillover effects from sovereign to corporate credit risk in Europe. A ten percent increase in sovereign credit risk raises corporate credit risk on average by 1.1 percent after the bailout. These effects are more …Read More
2016 already puts its mark on the economic map of Europe
Emerson, Michael, (2016), “2016 already puts its mark on the economic map of Europe”, Ceps publications, 8 Ιανουαρίου The start of 2016 brought highly symbolic changes to the trade policy map of Europe between the EU- and Russian-led blocs, as the EU’s Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Ukraine entered into force provisionally, while Russia moved in precisely the opposite direction by scrapping its free trade agreement with …Read More
Effectiveness and Channels of Macroprudential Instruments : Lessons from the Euro Area
Tressel, Thierry, Sophia Zhang, Yuanyan, (2016), “Effectiveness and Channels of Macroprudential Instruments : Lessons from the Euro Area”, IMF Publications, 12 Ιανουαρίου The crisis has highlighted the importance of setting up macro-prudential oversight frameworks, having effective macro-prudential instruments in place to be called upon to mitigate growing financial imbalances as needed. We develop a new approach using the euro area Bank Lending Survey to assess the effectiveness of macro-prudential policies in containing credit …Read More
A financial side to a macroeconomic story: macro imbalances and financial integration in the euro area
Merler, Sylvia, (2016), “A financial side to a macroeconomic story: macro imbalances and financial integration in the euro area”, Bruegel publications, 18 Ιανουαρίου In a recent paper, I looked at the evolution of financial cycles in the euro area and at their link with capital flows. Here, I focus on how those findings inform our understanding of euro-area macroeconomic imbalances, revisiting the analysis of national savings and investment correlation. Σχετικές …Read More
The ECB and the Fed: A comparative narrative
Woong Kang, Dae, Ligthart, Nick, Mody, Ashoka, (2016), “The ECB and the Fed: A comparative narrative”, Voxeu, 19 Ιανουαρίου Although the Great Recession was viewed as a US problem, the Eurozone was affected by it from the start. This column compares the monetary policy responses to the Crisis by the Fed and the ECB. It argues that the US approach has been much more aggressive and proactive. The ECB failed to provide stimulus when needed, …Read More
Towards a global narrative on long-term real interest rates
Rachel, Łukasz, D. Smith, Thomas, (2016), “Towards a global narrative on long-term real interest rates”, Voxeu, 15 Ιανουαρίου Many candidate explanations for the low level of real interest rates have been put forward. Less progress has been made on bringing together the different hypotheses into a unifying framework, on quantifying their relative importance and on predicting the future path for real interest rates. This column attempts to fill that gap, and suggests …Read More
Global Liquidity and Monetary Policy Autonomy-An Examination of Open-Economy Policy Constraints
Angrick, Stefan, (2015), “Global Liquidity and Monetary Policy Autonomy-An Examination of Open-Economy Policy Constraints”, IMK Working Paper 159, 8 Δεκεμβρίου. This paper examines the monetary policy constraints facing economies on a fixed peg or managed float regime, contrasting the Mundell-Fleming Trilemma view against the Compensation view commonly found at central banks. While the former holds that foreign exchange inflows and outflows affect the domestic money base, constraining monetary policy under nonfloating …Read More
The Threat That Will Save Europe
Gros, Daniel, (2016), “The Threat That Will Save Europe”, Social Europe Journal, 11 Ιανουαρίου. For the European Union, 2015 was another year of fundamental challenges. Two key elements of European integration – the euro and border-free travel within the Schengen Area – were placed under severe strain. And neither is in the clear. Nonetheless, one development in 2015 offers reason to hope that EU leaders will move beyond “muddling through” to …Read More
Beyond competitive devaluations: The monetary dimensions of comparative advantage
Bergin, Paul , Corsetti, Giancarlo, (2016), “Beyond competitive devaluations: The monetary dimensions of comparative advantage”, Voxeu, 11 Ιανουαρίου Competitive devaluation is a long-standing idea in international macroeconomic theory. This column takes a step back from the current debate and assesses a different perspective on monetary and exchange rate policies. Strategic behaviour is shown to be detrimental from a global welfare perspective. Due to negative spillovers elsewhere, devaluations invite retaliation – which …Read More
Debt crises in Europe and US states: Sovereign spillovers on private borrowers
Arellano, Cristina , Atkeson, Andy , L. J. Wright, Mark, (2016), “Debt crises in Europe and US states: Sovereign spillovers on private borrowers”, Voxeu, 10 Ιανουαρίου In the recent crisis in Southern Europe both sovereign governments and private citizens faced increased borrowing costs on their external debt. By contrast, no spillover to private borrowers occurred from the recent US state government debt crisis. This column argues that this different experience …Read More