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Lessons from the 2000–2002 Crisis in Argentina for the Sustainability of the Euro

Jeromin Zettelmeyer, (2018), «Lessons from the 2000–2002 Crisis in Argentina for the Sustainability of the Euro», Peterson Institute for International Economics, 30 Σεπτεμβρίου n December of 2001, after two years of recession and increasingly desperate attempts to forestall a debt crisis through IMF financial support, fiscal adjustment and debt management operations, Argentina defaulted on its external debt. A few days later, on 2 January 2002, it discontinued its «convertibility regime» …Read More

Political Science and the Eurozone Crisis. A Review of Scientific Journal Articles 2004–15*

Oliver Höing and Tobias Kunstein, «Political Science and the Eurozone Crisis. A Review of Scientific Journal Articles 2004–15», Journal of Common Market Studies, Σεπτέμβριος We take a closer look at how political science engaged with Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) over a period of 12 years (2004–15). How intensively, and with what focus, have political science journals dealt with EMU? How has the scientific discourse on the topic changed with the …Read More

Η πολιτική οικονομία του λαϊκισμού

Γιώργος Παγουλάτος, (2018), «Η πολιτική οικονομία του λαϊκισμού», Η Καθημερινή, 11 Νοεμβρίου Ορισμένοι οικονομολόγοι πιστεύουν ότι οι ψηφοφόροι είναι αρκετά ορθολογικοί για να διαβλέψουν ότι οι σημερινές παροχές θα οδηγήσουν σε αυριανούς φόρους. Οι εκλογικές νίκες δημαγωγών και τσαρλατάνων τούς διαψεύδουν. Ο δημαγωγικός λαϊκισμός επιχειρεί λεονταρισμούς προς τα έξω, για να κερδηθεί το εσωτερικό ακροατήριο. Οταν ο εκπρόσωπος ενός κράτους-μέλους παίζει τον σκληρό στις Βρυξέλλες, υποχρεώνει τους άλλους να ανταποδώσουν, αλλιώς …Read More

Regional Economic Outlook: Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence

IMF, (2018), «Regional Economic Outlook: Domestic Expansion Running into External Turbulence», World Economic and Financial Surveys, Νοέμβριος Economic activity continued to expand in the first half of 2018, albeit at a slower-than-expected pace, mainly in advanced Europe. Domestic demand, supported by stronger employment and wages, remains the main engine of growth. However, the external environment has become less supportive and is expected to soften further in 2019 owing to slowing global …Read More

The diversity of wage regimes: why the Eurozone is too heterogeneous for the Euro

Martin Hopner and Mark Lutter, (2018), «The diversity of wage regimes: why the Eurozone is too heterogeneous for the Euro», European Political Science Review, Volume 10, Issue 1 Why did the transnational synchronization of wage inflation fail during the first 10 years of the euro? We analyze data from 1999 to 2008 for 12 euro members and estimate increases of nominal unit labor costs both in the overall economy and in …Read More

Crowding out risk: Sovereign debt, banks, and firms’ investment in Italy

Pierluigi Balduzzi, Emanuele Brancati, Fabio Schiantarelli, (2018), «Crowding out risk: Sovereign debt, banks, and firms’ investment in Italy», VoxEU, 9 Νοεμβρίου In its budget draft, the Italian government has decided to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy, increasing the deficit to 2.4% of GDP in 2019 and maintaining an expansionary posture for the following two years. The bulk of the deficit increase is due to a minimum universal income scheme and …Read More

European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2018

European Commission, (2018), «European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2018», Economic and Financial Affairs, Institutional Paper 089, 8 Νοεμβρίου Growth in the euro area is forecast to ease from a 10-year high of 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 before moderating further to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020. The same pattern is expected for the EU27, with growth forecast at 2.1% in 2018, 2.0% in 2019 and 1.9% in …Read More

Sovereign bond pricing in the euro area: When legal clauses matter

Marcos Chamon, Julian Schumacher, Christoph Trebesch, (2018), «Sovereign bond pricing in the euro area: When legal clauses matter», VoxEU, 6 Νοεμβρίου The discussion on sovereign debt restructuring in the euro area has recently focused on legal considerations, in particular on whether the legal framework should be reformed to make restructurings more ‘viable’, for example via new collective action clauses (Bénassy-Quéré et al. 2018, Tabellini 2018, Pisani-Ferry and Zettelmeyer 2018). Should …Read More

The consequences of Italy’s increasing dependence on domestic debt-holders

Jan Mazza, (2018), «The consequences of Italy’s increasing dependence on domestic debt-holders», Bruegel, 6 Νοεμβρίου What could happen then, if the government indeed had to revise its estimates downward and provide a rebalancing of its fiscal position (either through increased revenues or lower expenditure)? Several signals point to the usual suspects: Italian residents, and their still substantial private wealth. On this, there is perhaps surprising agreement between the Italian ruling …Read More

2 Views of Angela Merkel’s Legacy: Stoic Leadership, and Economic Malpractice

Peter S. Goodman, (2018), «2 Views of Angela Merkel’s Legacy: Stoic Leadership, and Economic Malpractice», The New York Times, 1 Νοεμβρίου But many economists take a less generous view of the German chancellor’s place in modern European history. Far from a hero who anchored the bloc under profound challenges, she played a leading role in amplifying an economic crisis, allowing it to erupt into an existential threat to the European …Read More