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Fiscal multipliers – oh yeah!

Ματσαγγάνης, Μάνος, (2013), ‘Fiscal multipliers-oh yeah’, www.protagon.gr, 29 Ιανουαρίου. Συμβαίνει σπάνια ένα επιστημονικό ζήτημα με περίεργες τεχνικές πτυχές να συζητιέται ξαφνικά στα πρωτοσέλιδα του διεθνούς Τύπου. Αυτό ακριβώς φαίνεται να συμβαίνει τώρα, με τη διαμάχη γύρω από το ζήτημα των «δημοσιονομικών πολλαπλασιαστών» – θέμα με το οποίο ομολογώ ότι και εγώ έχω ασχοληθεί ελάχιστα από τότε που ήμουν δευτεροετής φοιτητής ΑΣΟΕΕ.

Ο παραλογισμός της γενικευμένης λιτότητας

Βαρουφάκης, Γιάνης, (2013), ‘O παραλογισμός της γενικευμένης λιτότητας’, www.protagon.gr, 18 Ιανουαρίου. Δύο ελλείμματα βρίσκονται στην καρδιά του «ελληνικού προβλήματος». Το δημόσιο έλλειμμα και το εμπορικό έλλειμμα. Αν τα εξαφανίζαμε, πιστεύουν πολλοί, η Ελλάδα θα ορθοποδούσε. Αυτό όμως που λίγοι βλέπουν είναι ότι, υπό τις συνθήκες Κρίσης, η μείωση του ενός ελλείμματος αυξάνει το άλλο. Κι όταν όλες οι χώρες της Ευρωζώνης πασχίζουν να μειώσουν τα δημοσιονομικά τους ελλείμματα, διογκώνουν τις …Read More

Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports

Alcidi, Cinzia  Gros, Daniel, (2012), ‘Why is the Greek economy collapsing? A simple tale of high multipliers and low exports’, www.ceps.eu, 21 Δεκεμβρίου. In an attempt to understand why the Greek economy is collapsing, this Commentary points out two key aspects that are often overlooked – the country’s large multiplier and a bad export performance. When combined with the need for a large fiscal adjustment, these factors help explain how fiscal consolidation in …Read More

The probability of Greek exit, revisited

Jens Nordvig, (2012), ‘Τhe probability of Greek exit, revisited’, www.voxeu.org, 17 Δεκεμβρίου. Fears of an imminent Greek exit from the Eurozone have subsided, for now. This column attempts to measure the probability of a Greek exit, finding that the changing fortunes of Greek political parties, and the possibility of an early election, mean that the risk of a Greek exit may actually be quite high. It suggests that, despite investors’ …Read More

Greece’s Bogus Debt Deal

Mody, Ashoka, (2012), ‘Greece’s Bogus Debt Deal’, www.project-syndicate.org, 14 Δεκεμβρίου. The process of official forgiveness of Greek debt has begun. Referred to as “official sector involvement” (OSI), it includes several initiatives aimed at reducing Greece’s debt/GDP ratio to 124% in 2020, from roughly 200% today. Even as the deal was announced, however, newspaper reports suggested that officials recognized that the measures would be insufficient to meet the target; further negotiations …Read More

Why Greece is a Model of Economic Mismanagement

Yves Smith, (2012), ‘Why Greece is a Model of Economic Mismanagement’, www.economonitor.com, 21 Νοεμβρίου. I note that we still haven’t heard from the Euro group meeting about what the exact plan is for Greece. As I said, my expectations are that a ‘deal’ will be stitched together at the last minute to ‘kick the can’ further down the road because I can’t see northern creditors having the political will to …Read More

Macroeconomic Imbalance Scoreboard – A Visual Ranking Among 11 EZ Countries

Capone-Parisi, Elisa, (2012), ‘Macroeconomic Imbalance Scoreboard – A Visual Ranking Among 11 EZ Countries’, www.economonitor.com, 9 Νοεμβρίου. According to the EU Commission’s website, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) is a surveillance mechanism that aims to prevent and correct macroeconomic imbalances within the EU. It relies on an alert system that uses a scoreboard of indicators and in-depth country studies, strict rules in the form of a new Excessive Imbalance Procedure (EIP) …Read More

Greek haircuts and Greek myths — the detail

McDermott, John, (2011), ‘Greek haircuts and Greek myths — the detail’, ftalphaville.ft.com, 22 Οκτωβρίου. European leaders on Friday received some interesting weekend reading.FT Alphaville has also taken a look at “Greece: Debt Sustainability Analysis”, an assessment prepared by European Commission economists for discussion on Friday among European finance ministers. We’ve put it in the usual place.

Greece: Quo vadis?

Darvas, Zsolt, (2011), ‘Greece: Quo vadis?’,  www.bruegel.org, 17 Σεπτεμβρίου. German Vice-Chancellor and Economics Minister Philipp Rösler broke a long period of silence about a possible Greek default by saying that all ptions are to be considered.Several finance ministries in the eurozone started to assess its implications. The ‘troika’ — the delegation composed of the IMF, European Commission and European Central Bank officials — has recently left Athens without an agreement. …Read More