Bengtsson, Erik, Waldenström, Daniel, (2015), “Capital shares and income inequality: Evidence from the long run”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Δεκέμβριος. This paper investigates the relationship between the capital share in national income and personal income inequality over the long run. Using a new historical cross-country database on capital shares in 19 countries and data from the World Top Income Database, we find strong long-run links between the aggregate role of capital …Read More

Hood, Andrew, Joyce, Robert, (2015), “Income changes and their determinants over the lifecycle”, IFS Working Paper, 21 Δεκεμβρίου. What explains the variation in how income changes as people age? Using household panel data, we investigate the contribution of different time-varying factors in explaining variation in income changes over prime working-age life (between 35-44 and 50-59). We find that demographic changes, such as acquiring or losing a partner and the entry or exit of …Read More

Han, Xuehui, Wei, Shang-Jin, (2015), “Re-examining the Middle Income Trap Hypothesis: What to Reject and What to Revive?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Δεκέμβριος. Do middle-income countries face difficult challenges producing consistent growth? Using transition matrix analysis, we can easily reject any unconditional notion of a “middle-income trap” in the data. However, countries have different fundamentals and policies. Using a non-parametric classification technique, we search for variables that separate fast- and slow-growing countries. For …Read More

Lama, Ruy, Guzman Medina, Juan Pablo, (2015), “Fiscal Consolidation During Times of High Unemployment: The Role of Productivity Gains and Wage Restraint”, IMF Papers, 10 Δεκεμβρίου. This paper studies the Swedish fiscal consolidation episode of the 1990s through the lens of a small open economy model with distortionary taxation and unemployment. We argue that the simultaneous reduction in the fiscal deficit and unemployment rate in this episode stems from two factors: (i) high …Read More

Theodoropoulou, Sotiria, (2015), “How to avert the risk of deflation in Europe: rethinking the policy mix and European economic governance”, European trade union institute, No 16, 2015. This policy brief discusses the risks of deflation for the European economy. It critically evaluates the European economic governance for not having averted this risk and discusses how a more coordinated approach to both fiscal policy and collective wage bargaining, both aiming at national …Read More

Ho, Giang, Shirono, Kazuko, (2015), “The Nordic Labor Market and Migration”, IMF papers, 4 Δεκεμβρίου The large influx of migrants to Nordic countries in recent years is challenging the adoptability of Nordic labor market institutions while also adding to potential growth. This paper examines the trends, economic drivers, and labor market implications of migration to Nordic countries with a particular focus on economic migration as distinct from the recent large flows of …Read More

Caliendo, Marco, Schmidl, Ricarda, (2015), “Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe”, IZA, Νοέμβριος. Since the economic crisis in 2008, European youth unemployment rates have been persistently high at around 20% on average. The majority of European countries spends significant resources each year on active labor market programs (ALMP) with the aim of improving the integration prospects of struggling youths. Among the most common programs used are training courses, job search …Read More

Claeys, Grégory, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?”, Bruegel Publlications, Issue 18, 12 Νοεμβρίου. After soaring in the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation has declined significantly in all advanced countries and is now at very low levels.This movement coincided with the acceleration of globalisation, triggering a recent debate on whether globalisation could be one of the main drivers of the disinflation process, and …Read More

Hüttl, Pia, Wilson, Karen, Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “The Growing Intergenerational Divide in Europe”, Bruegel Publications, Issue 17, Νοέμβριος. During seven years of economic crisis, the intergenerational income and wealth divide has increased in many European Union countries. In the bloc as a whole, young people on average have become significantly poorer, while poverty among pensioners has been reduced (Figure 1). Unemployment among the under-25s has risen notably while older workers (aged 5-64) have been less …Read More

Barnichon, Régis, Garda, Paula, (2015), “Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead …Read More