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The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester

Darvas, Zsolt, Leandro, Álvaro, (2015), “The limitations of policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester”, Bruegel Publications, Issue 19, 12 Νοεμβρίου. This paper assesses economic policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester. In sections 2 and 3, we make a positive (and not normative) assessment by taking Council recommendations made in the context of the European Semester as given and evaluating their implementation and consistency, without assessing …Read More

Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?

Claeys, Grégory, Wolff, Guntram B., (2015), “Is globalisation reducing the ability of central banks to control inflation?”, Bruegel Publlications, Issue 18, 12 Νοεμβρίου. After soaring in the 1970s and early 1980s, inflation has declined significantly in all advanced countries and is now at very low levels.This movement coincided with the acceleration of globalisation, triggering a recent debate on whether globalisation could be one of the main drivers of the disinflation process, and …Read More

The Growing Intergenerational Divide in Europe

Hüttl, Pia, Wilson, Karen, Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “The Growing Intergenerational Divide in Europe”, Bruegel Publications, Issue 17, Νοέμβριος. During seven years of economic crisis, the intergenerational income and wealth divide has increased in many European Union countries. In the bloc as a whole, young people on average have become significantly poorer, while poverty among pensioners has been reduced (Figure 1). Unemployment among the under-25s has risen notably while older workers (aged 5-64) have been less …Read More

Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies?-Panel Evidence from the Eurozone

Boumparis, Periklis, Milas, Costas, Panagiotidis, Theodore, (2015), “Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies?-Panel Evidence from the Eurozone”, University of Macedonia, Discussion Paper No. 4/2015, Νοέμβριος We examine the determinants of credit ratings for the Eurozone countries over the period 2002-2013 within a panel framework that allows for cross-sectional dependence. We find that government debt and the cumulative current account exert a stronger impact on ratings post- 2008 compared …Read More

Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments

Adam, Antonis, Hatzipanayotou, Panos, Moutos, Thomas, (2015), “Labour Market Regulation, Fiscal Consolidation, and the Success of Current Account Adjustments”, AUEB Working Paper Series 15-17, Οκτώβριος In this paper we argue that the strictness of labour market regulations can interact with the mode of fiscal consolidation (tax- based versus spending-based fiscal adjustments) to affect whether current account adjustments are successful. Using data from 81 countries, we are able to identify 147 …Read More

Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications

Blanchard, Olivier, Cerutti, Eugenio, Summers, Lawrence, (2015), “Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15/230, Νοέμβριος We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the …Read More

Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs

Barnichon, Régis, Garda, Paula, (2015), “Forecasting Unemployment across Countries: the Ins and Outs”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. This paper evaluates the flow approach to unemployment forecasting proposed by Barnichon and Nekarda (2012) for a set of OECD countries characterized by very different labor markets. We find that the flow approach yields substantial improvements in forecast accuracy over professional forecasts for all countries, with especially large improvements at longer horizons (one-year ahead …Read More

The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis

Ben Cheikh, Nidhaleddine, Rault, Christophe, (2015), “The Pass-Through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis”, IZA, Οκτώβριος. This paper investigates whether exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices is a nonlinear phenomenon for five heavily indebted Euro area countries, namely the so-called GIIPS group (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain). Using logistic smooth transition models, we explore the existence of nonlinearity with respect to sovereign bond …Read More

A Positive Theory of Tax Reform

Ilzetzki, Ethan, (2015), “A Positive Theory of Tax Reform”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. The political impediments to reform and the forces allowing its success are studied in a model where the tax base and statutory rate are separate instruments of tax policy. The model predicts that big bang reforms—large changes in the tax code—may be easier to enact than marginal reforms. Preferences over the tax base face a tipping point …Read More

Employment and the Great Recession : The Role of Real Wages

B. Bakker, Bas, (2015), ” Employment and the Great Recession : The Role of Real Wages”, IMF publications, 28 Οκτωβρίου This paper argues that the sharp increase in unemployment in a number of advanced countries during the Great Recession was not just cyclical (the result of a lack of aggregate demand); the degree of adjustment of real wages and the impact this had on labor productivity also played a role. In many …Read More