J. Blanchard, Olivier, David Ostry, Jonathan, R. Ghosh, Atish, Chamon, Marcos, (2015), ” Are Capital Inflows Expansionary or Contractionary? Theory, Policy Implications, and Some Evidence”, IMF Publications, Working Paper No. 15/226, 23 Οκτωβρίου The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers however believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output, and the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile …Read More

Funke, Manuel, Schularick, Moritz, Trebesch, Christoph, (2015), “Going to Extremes: Politics after Financial Crises, 1870-2014”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Οκτώβριος Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic financial crises over the past 140 years. …Read More

Müller, Torsten, Schulten, Thorsten, (2015), “The public-private sector pay debate in Europe”, European Trade Union Institute, Αύγουστος This Working Paper critically reviews the empirical evidence and the basic assumptions on which European and national policymakers base their strategy of cutting and freezing public sector pay as one central element of the current crisis management. Using comparative studies and new statistical data, the paper demonstrates that these assumptions are wrong, as …Read More

Sandri, Damiano, (2015), “Dealing with Systemic Sovereign Debt Crises: Fiscal Consolidation, Bail-ins or Official Transfers?”, IMF Working Paper, WP/15/223, 16 Οκτωβρίου The paper presents a tractable model to understand how international financial institutions (IFIs) should deal with the sovereign debt crisis of a systemic country, in which case private creditors’ bail-ins entail international spillovers. Besides lending to the country up to its borrowing capacity, IFIs face the difficult issue of how …Read More