Gros, Daniel, Pieter de Groen, Willem, (2016), “A radical cure for Italy’s banking problems: A combination of good banks and soft bail-in”, CEPS, 20 Δεκεμβρίου Italian banks are in a precarious situation, burdened by non-performing loans (NPLs) that are almost of the same magnitude as their capital and provisions. The gradual approach of dealing with NPLs via more provisioning and some sales has yielded little results. The political crisis now gives …Read More
The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: a new framework
Égert, Balázs, Gal, Peter, (2016), “The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: a new framework”, OECD Economic Department Working Paper No. 1354, 20 Δεκεμβρίου This document describes and discusses a new supply side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment and productivity through a production …Read More
Macroeconomics and consumption: Why central bank models failed and how to repair them
Muellbauer, John, (2016), “Macroeconomics and consumption: Why central bank models failed and how to repair them”, VoxEu, 21 Δεκεμβρίου The failure of the New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models to capture interactions of finance and the real economy has been widely recognised since the Global Crisis. This column argues that the flaws in these models stem from unrealistic micro-foundations for household behaviour and from wrongly assuming that aggregate behaviour …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings
Philippon, Thomas, Roldán, Francisco, (2016), “On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings”, International Monetary Fund, Νοέμβριος We study the optimal path of reduction of government debt in an economy when the economy is depressed and there is significant sovereign default risk. We emphasize the endogenous response of savers to sovereign risk. We obtain two main results. First, this new macro-economic channel changes the tradeoff between the recessionary …Read More
Measuring the Uncertainty in Predicting Public Revenue
Mourre, Gilles, Astarita, Caterina, Maftei, Anamaria, (2016), “Measuring the Uncertainty in Predicting Public Revenue”, European Commission, Δεκέμβριος This paper provides an assessment of the uncertainty surrounding revenue predictions, through an ex post analysis of European Commission’s forecasts over the last 15 years. It estimates the forecast errors affecting revenue for all 28 Member States, using the different vintages of the autumn and spring Commission forecasts. It analyses both the direction …Read More
The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies
Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, (2016), “The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies”, International Monetary Fund, Νοέμβριος The paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms on output, employment and productivity, and explores how these vary with prevailing macreconomic conditions and policies. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of major country- and country-sector-level reform shocks …Read More
The proposed mobility package may not have much effect on mobility, but what about politics?
Barslund, Mikkel, Busse, Matthias, (2016), “The proposed mobility package may not have much effect on mobility, but what about politics?”, CEPS, 16 Δεκεμβρίου ON TUESDAY OF THIS WEEK, December 13th, the European Commission unveiled its long-awaited second part of the mobility package on the coordination of social security benefits (Regulation 883/2004).[1] While this regulation concerns only a small part of the population in the EU – with the proposed changes …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area – No 3 (2016)
European Commission, (2016), “Quarterly Report on the Euro Area – No 3 (2016)”, Institutional Paper 046, Δεκέμβριος In his State of the Union address in September, Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker stressed that the European Union (EU) ‘is, at least in part, in an existential crisis’. He urged leaders to pull together to stop the EU unravelling in a challenging environment of low trust, rising populism and greater focus on domestic problems …Read More
The impact of uncertainty on activity in the euro area
European Central Bank, (2016), “The impact of uncertainty on activity in the euro area”, ECB, 19 Δεκεμβρίου Fluctuations in uncertainty can play an important role in shaping the economic conjuncture and outlook. This article discusses the various methods proposed in the literature to measure uncertainty and shows how these measures have evolved in the euro area. It describes the transmission channels of fluctuations in uncertainty to the economy and provides …Read More
Public policy in a zero-growth scenario
Perotti, Enrico, (2016), “Public policy in a zero-growth scenario”, VoxEu, 16 Δεκεμβρίου Per-capita income in developed countries has stagnated, which most economists regard as a departure from the long-run trend. This column argues that zero long-term growth will be the new normal. In this zero-growth world, spending increases must always be balanced against spending reductions elsewhere or in the future, which creates a further problem: no politician could implement policy …Read More