Skidelsky, Robert, (2016), “How Much Debt Is Too Much?”, Social Europe, 29 Ιανουαρίου. Is there a “safe” debt/income ratio for households or debt/GDP ratio for governments? In both cases, the answer is yes. And in both cases, it is impossible to say exactly what that ratio is. Nonetheless, this has become the most urgent macroeconomic question of the moment, owing not just to spiraling household and government debt since 2000, but …Read More
Sachs, Jeffrey, (2016), “The Global Economy’s Marshmallow Test”, Project Syndicate, 27 Ιανουαρίου The world economy is experiencing a turbulent start to 2016. Stock markets are plummeting; emerging economies are reeling in response to the sharp decline in commodities prices; refugee inflows are further destabilizing Europe; China’s growth has slowed markedly in response to a capital-flow reversal and an overvalued currency; and the US is in political paralysis. A few central …Read More
Steil, Benn, Smith, Emma, (2016), “Emerging Markets Fear Yellen, But Need To Keep Their Eye On Draghi”, Forbes, 22 Ιανουαρίου In anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in nearly a decade, $500 billion in capital outflows slammed emerging markets (EMs) last year–a slow-motion version of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” when the Fed signaled that the era of quantitative easing was coming to an end. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Minenna, Marcello, (2016), “How …Read More
Wren Lewis, Simon, (2016), “German Exports And The Eurozone”, Social Europe Journal, 24 Ιανουαρίου I have argued that the low level of German wage increases before the financial crisis were a significant destabilising influence on the Eurozone, which also indirectly contributed to Germany taking a hard line on austerity. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Turner, A. (2014) “Germany’s Secret Credit Addiction“, Project Syndicate, 10 Νοεμβρίου. The Economist Explains: “Why the German economy is in a …Read More
Schulz, Martin, (2016), “Pulling Europe Back From The Brink”, Social Europe Journal, Ιανουάριος. Ιn 2007, the United States caught a serious – and highly contagious – economic cold. Eight years later, it is finally making a convincing recovery – so convincing that last month the US Federal Reserve raised the country’s base interest rate for the first time in almost a decade. Europe, however, remains in bad shape. Not only has …Read More
Bocchi, Alessandro Magnoli, (2016), “Six Questions for Europe”, Εconomonitor Blog, Ιανουάριος. Europe is in decline. To avoid decay, it needs to bridge the gap between aspirations and reality. As practiced, democracy is failing citizens and needs rethinking. Below-replacement fertility rates put the welfare state at risk. Rigid social structures induce risk-aversion and stifle innovation. Immigration-without-integration erodes social cohesion. Without fresh thinking at the macro and micro level, growth will stagnate. Going …Read More
Brandao-Marques, Luis, Gelos, Gaston, (2016), “Resilience of market liquidity”, Voxeu, 18 Ιανουαρίου. Concerns about both the level of bond market liquidity and its fragility have risen lately, prompted partly by events such as the October 2014 Treasury bond flash rally in the US, or the April 2015 Bund tantrum in Europe. This column assesses current market liquidity and resilience, discerning several key policy recommendations from the evidence. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Kay, John, (2015), “Liquidity …Read More
Woong Kang, Dae, Ligthart, Nick, Mody, Ashoka, (2016), “The ECB and the Fed: A comparative narrative”, Voxeu, 19 Ιανουαρίου Although the Great Recession was viewed as a US problem, the Eurozone was affected by it from the start. This column compares the monetary policy responses to the Crisis by the Fed and the ECB. It argues that the US approach has been much more aggressive and proactive. The ECB failed to provide stimulus when needed, …Read More
Rodrik, Dani, (2016), “The Return of Public Investment”, Project Syndicate, 13 Ιανουαρίου The idea that public investment in infrastructure – roads, dams, power plants, and so forth – is an indispensable driver of economic growth has always held powerful sway over the minds of policymakers in poor countries. It also lay behind early development assistance programs following World War II, when the World Bank and bilateral donors funneled resources to …Read More
Rachel, Łukasz, D. Smith, Thomas, (2016), “Towards a global narrative on long-term real interest rates”, Voxeu, 15 Ιανουαρίου Many candidate explanations for the low level of real interest rates have been put forward. Less progress has been made on bringing together the different hypotheses into a unifying framework, on quantifying their relative importance and on predicting the future path for real interest rates. This column attempts to fill that gap, and suggests …Read More
