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Dating financial stress episodes: A new model-based approach

Duprey, Thibaut, Benjamin, Klaus, Peltonen, Tuomas, (2016), “Dating financial stress episodes: A new model-based approach”, Voxeu, 14 Ιανουαρίου. It is widely agreed that the Global Crisis qualifies as a period of ‘systemic’ financial stress. However, identifying and classifying other similar periods is challenging. This column presents a new framework for a transparent and objective identification of systemic financial stress episodes, beyond the expert-selected stress events available so far. The approach is applied to 27 …Read More

The Threat That Will Save Europe

Gros, Daniel, (2016), “The Threat That Will Save Europe”, Social Europe Journal, 11 Ιανουαρίου. For the European Union, 2015 was another year of fundamental challenges. Two key elements of European integration – the euro and border-free travel within the Schengen Area – were placed under severe strain. And neither is in the clear. Nonetheless, one development in 2015 offers reason to hope that EU leaders will move beyond “muddling through” to …Read More

Caputalism: Will Capitalism Die?

Misik, Robert, (2016), “Caputalism: Will Capitalism Die? “,  Social Europe Journal, 12 Ιανουαρίου. The fact that western capitalism is in a severe crisis is now so commonplace that it’s become almost a cliché. In 2008 the global financial system stood on the brink of collapse and the rescue measures undertaken by panic-stricken governments will burden their economies for years to come. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Hodgson, Geoffrey, (2015), “Conceptualizing Capitalism-Institutions, Evolution, Future”, …Read More

The use of models by policymakers

Cohen-Setton, Jeremie, (2016), “The use of models by policymakers”, Bruegel, 11 Ιανουαρίου What’s at stake: The latest discussions on the blogosphere have been dominated by a back and forth trialogue between Larry Summers, Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong on the appropriate use of models as policy guides. While they all agree that the Fed’s decision to raise rates was a mistake, they disagree on the intellectual reasons behind it. Σχετικές …Read More

Poland Needs an Independent Central Bank

Bloombeg View, (2016), “Poland Needs an Independent Central Bank”, 11 Ιανουαρίου In the two months since it won an absolute majority in parliament, Poland’s Law and Justice Party has seemed more intent on achieving something close to absolute power. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Wyplosz, Charles, (2015), “Grexit: The staggering cost of central bank dependence”, Voxeu, 29 Ιουνίου Merler, S. (2014) “Shrinking times – ECB excess liquidity falls below €100 billion”, Bruegel Think Tank, 24 …Read More

How The Oil Price Crash Is Wrecking Mario Draghi’s QE Effect

Minenna, Marcello, (2016), “How The Oil Price Crash Is Wrecking Mario Draghi’s QE Effect”, Social Europe Journal, 11 Ιανουαρίου 2015 will go down as the year when the oil price crash did not result in a swift decline in oil output. At a first glance, this seems a very strange phenomenon. Although the price reduction has been massive (-75% in 18 months) it is certainly not the fastest: in 2008, …Read More

Getting eurozone deposit insurance right promises benefits

Wolff, Guntram, (2016), “Getting eurozone deposit insurance right promises benefits”, Bruegel, 5 Ιανουαρίου The European Commission presented its proposals for European deposit insurance last November. Officials hope to stabilise the banking system and decouple banks’ financing costs from the solvency of their host states. This would achieve the original aim of Banking Union: to break the link between states and their banking systems. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Gros, Daniel, Belke, Ansgar, (2015), …Read More

Farewell to the vultures? Argentine debt restructuring and bargaining theory

Miller, Marcus, Ghosal, Sayantan, (2016), “Farewell to the vultures? Argentine debt restructuring and bargaining theory”, Voxeu, 8 Ιανουαρίου. Shylock’s insistence in ‘The Merchant of Venice’ that his “pound of flesh” be paid as per the contract, regardless of the extreme and grotesque cost to the debtor, is an apt parallel with vulture funds holding out on Argentinian debt pay-outs. This column assesses the Argentinian debt situation and develops an accord that would …Read More

Greece’s Two Currencies

 Varoufakis, Yanis, (2016), “Greece’s Two Currencies”, Social Europe, 8 Ιανουαρίου. Imagine a depositor in the US state of Arizona being permitted to withdraw only small amounts of cash weekly and facing restrictions on how much money he or she could wire to a bank account in California. Such capital controls, if they ever came about, would spell the end of the dollar as a single currency, because such constraints are utterly …Read More

Another Slow Year for the Global Economy

Mody, Ashoka, (2016), “Another Slow Year for the Global Economy”, Project Syndicate, 4 Ιανουαρίου Last April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by 3.5% in 2015. In the ensuing months, that forecast was steadily whittled down, reaching 3.1% in October. But the IMF continues to insist – as it has, with almost banal predictability, for the last seven years – that next year will be …Read More