Duprey, Thibaut, Benjamin, Klaus, Peltonen, Tuomas, (2016), “Dating financial stress episodes: A new model-based approach”, Voxeu, 14 Ιανουαρίου. It is widely agreed that the Global Crisis qualifies as a period of ‘systemic’ financial stress. However, identifying and classifying other similar periods is challenging. This column presents a new framework for a transparent and objective identification of systemic financial stress episodes, beyond the expert-selected stress events available so far. The approach is applied to 27 …Read More

Cohen-Setton, Jeremie, (2016), “The use of models by policymakers”, Bruegel, 11 Ιανουαρίου What’s at stake: The latest discussions on the blogosphere have been dominated by a back and forth trialogue between Larry Summers, Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong on the appropriate use of models as policy guides. While they all agree that the Fed’s decision to raise rates was a mistake, they disagree on the intellectual reasons behind it. Σχετικές …Read More

Minenna, Marcello, (2016), “How The Oil Price Crash Is Wrecking Mario Draghi’s QE Effect”, Social Europe Journal, 11 Ιανουαρίου 2015 will go down as the year when the oil price crash did not result in a swift decline in oil output. At a first glance, this seems a very strange phenomenon. Although the price reduction has been massive (-75% in 18 months) it is certainly not the fastest: in 2008, …Read More

Miller, Marcus, Ghosal, Sayantan, (2016), “Farewell to the vultures? Argentine debt restructuring and bargaining theory”, Voxeu, 8 Ιανουαρίου. Shylock’s insistence in ‘The Merchant of Venice’ that his “pound of flesh” be paid as per the contract, regardless of the extreme and grotesque cost to the debtor, is an apt parallel with vulture funds holding out on Argentinian debt pay-outs. This column assesses the Argentinian debt situation and develops an accord that would …Read More

Mody, Ashoka, (2016), “Another Slow Year for the Global Economy”, Project Syndicate, 4 Ιανουαρίου Last April, the International Monetary Fund projected that the world economy would grow by 3.5% in 2015. In the ensuing months, that forecast was steadily whittled down, reaching 3.1% in October. But the IMF continues to insist – as it has, with almost banal predictability, for the last seven years – that next year will be …Read More