Bloomberg  View, (2015), “Europe’s Economy Needs Action, Not Words”, 4 Σεπτεμβρίου European Central Bank President Mario Draghi is something of an expert at moving markets by doing nothing, and he showed his prowess again yesterday. He said the ECB stands ready to stimulate Europe’s sluggish economy further, but has no plans to do so right now. That was seen as dovish, so European stocks advanced, euro bond-yields declined, and the …Read More

Shilling, Gary, (2015), “Will Oil Cause the Next Recession?”, Bloomberg View, 2 Σεπτεμβρίου If oil prices take another dramatic slide, as I believe they will, who wins and who loses? And could plummeting oil prices sow the seeds of the next recession?Oil-importing countries are obvious winners from falling crude prices. That includes the U.S., where — despite a surge in domestic production — imports still account for nearly 50 percent of petroleum consumption. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Gomez, …Read More

Garcia Herrero, Alicia, (2015), “Why is China finding it hard to fight the markets?”, Bruegel publications, 31 Αυγούστου China’s market drama started in June this year with the collapse of the Shanghai stock exchange, followed by frantic interventions by the Chinese authorities. As if the estimated $200 billion already spent on propping up stock prices were not enough, China found itself in another battle with the market, defending the RMB …Read More

Cohen Setton, Jeremie, (2015), “The global trade slowdown puzzle”, Bruegel publications, 31 Αυγούστ0υ What’s at stake: This week’s data renewed concerns about developments in global trade as it showed for the last 6 months the biggest contraction in global trade since the end of the financial crisis. While cyclical factors may be at play, trade specialists have also advanced a host of structural explanations to explain the decline in the …Read More

Boskin, Michael, (2015), “What Should China Do?”, Project Syndicate, 26 Αυγούστου The Chinese government’s heavy-handed efforts to contain recent stock-market volatility – the latest move prohibits short selling and sales by major shareholders – have seriously damaged its credibility. But China’s policy failures should come as no surprise. Policymakers there are far from the first to mismanage financial markets, currencies, and trade. Many European governments, for example, suffered humiliating losses …Read More

Godement, François, (2015), “China’s stock market crash: the end of a myth”, European Council on Foreing Relations, 25 Αυγούστου To any student of geo-economics, the current gyrations of China’s and the world’s stock markets are fascinating.  The Shanghai exchange is notoriously volatile: two years ago it was thoroughly depressed when the Chinese economy seemed to be booming, while over the past year it has been boiling as China’s economy slowed …Read More

Van der Cruijsen, Carin, Jan Jansen, David, De Haan, Jacob, (2015), “What the general public knows about monetary policy”, Voxeu, 23 Αυγούστου Central banks have typically targeted their communication at financial markets. Increasingly, however, many have started actively communicating with the general public. Using Dutch survey data, this column finds that the public’s knowledge of monetary policy objectives is far from perfect, and varies widely across respondents. Those with a greater understanding of …Read More

Weeks, John, (2015), “Economic Recovery? Why Eurozone Under-performance Continues”, Social Europe Journal, 25 Αυγούστου Prior to the release of growth statistics in the middle of August there was widespread expectation that a sustained eurozone recovery would at last be verified. However, the numbers showed a result familiar to long suffering commuters all over Europe – “we regret that this service is delayed”. This is far from the first such disappointment …Read More

Mody, Ashoka, Wolff, Guntram, (2015), “Euro Area Banks Remain Vulnerable”, Bruegel publications, 21 Αυγούστου The euro area’s biggest banks have reported record profits. The stress tests published by the European Central Bank late last year showed that the largest banks—those with assets of more than €500 billion—have been able to cut their non-performing exposures and increase their provisions. But the euro area banking system is not out of the woods. …Read More