Kozlowski, Julian, Veldkamp, Laura, Venkateswaran, Venky, (2016), “The tail that wags the economy: The origin of secular stagnation”, VoxEu, 11 Σεπτεμβρίου The Great Recession has had long-lasting effects on credit markets, employment, and output. This column combines a model with macroeconomic data to measure how the recession has changed beliefs about the possibility of future crises. According to the model, the estimated change in sentiment correlates with economic activity. A short-lived financial …Read More

Veld, Jan in ‘t, (2016), “Public investment stimulus in surplus countries and their Eurozone spillovers”, VoxeEU, 9 Σεπτεμβρίου The spillover effects of a fiscal stimulus in normal times are likely to be small, at best. This column argues, however, that when interest rates are stuck at the zero lower bound and monetary policy does not offset the expansion, public investment in surplus countries could have significant positive GDP spillovers to the …Read More

Boeri, Tito, Garibaldi, Pietro, Moen, Espen (2016), “Increases in the retirement age and labour demand for youth”, VoxEU, 8 Σεπτεμβρίου The Eurozone’s sustained rise in youth unemployment since 2008 threatens to create a ‘lost generation’. This column presents evidence that this is, in part, an unintended consequence of pension reforms in southern Europe that locked in older workers. In future, reforms that create flexible retirement ages alongside variable pension levels …Read More

De Groen, Willem Pieter, Gros, Daniel, (2016), “European banks under stress (tests): Which remain the most resilient?”, CEPS, 11 Αυγούστου The latest round of stress test conducted by the European Banking Authority  for 51 large banking groups showed huge differences in the degree to which a shock, or so-called adverse scenario, would impact different banks. We find that banks with a high exposure to sovereign risk and especially those with many non-performing loans …Read More