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The impact of unemployment insurance expansion on aggregate employment during the Great Recession

Boone, Christopher, Dube, Arindrajit, Goodman, Lucas, Kaplan, Ethan, (2017), “The impact of unemployment insurance expansion on aggregate employment during the Great Recession”, VoxEu, 8 Ιανουαρίου The Unemployment Insurance programme in the US was significantly expanded during between 2008 and 2014. This column examines the effect of unemployment insurance duration on aggregate employment during the Great Recession using state-level expansions and contractions in insurance generosity. It finds a positive but not …Read More

Unusual outcomes and uncertain times

Kozeniauskas, Nicholas, Veldkamp, Laura, (2017), “Unusual outcomes and uncertain times”, VoxEu, 3 Ιανουαρίου Uncertainty shocks are a major avenue of research in the quest to explain business cycles, as well as asset prices and financial crises. This column argues that three conceptually distinct types of uncertainty that are often modelled independently – ‘macro’ uncertainty about an aggregate variable such as GDP, ‘micro’ uncertainty about firms’ individual outcomes, and ‘higher-order’ uncertainty …Read More

The Macroeconomic Effects of Official Debt Restructuring: Evidence from the Paris Club

Cheng, Gong, Diaz-Cassou, Javier, Erce, Aitor, (2016), “The Macroeconomic Effects of Official Debt Restructuring: Evidence from the Paris Club”, ESM Working Paper 21, 29 Δεκεμβρίου This paper presents new empirical results on the macroeconomic impact of sovereign debt restructurings with official-sector creditors. Using a novel dataset on Paris Club restructurings and Local Projection methods, we find that Paris Club treatments can have a significant impact on economic growth — 2% …Read More

Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000’s: Achievements and Challenges Ahead

Carone, Giuseppe, Eckefeldt, Per, Giamboni, Luigi, Laine, Veli, Pamies Sumner, Stéphanie, (2016), “Pension Reforms in the EU since the Early 2000’s: Achievements and Challenges Ahead”, European Commission, 23 Δεκεμβρίου Most EU Member States have carried out substantial pension reforms over the last decades in order to enhance fiscal sustainability, while maintaining adequate pension income. The intensity of pension reforms has been particularly strong since 2000. These reforms have been implemented …Read More

Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach

Belke, Ansgar, Osowski, Thomas, (2016), “Measuring fiscal spillovers in EMU and beyond: A Global VAR approach”, CEPS, 16 Δεκεμβρίου This paper empirically identifies and measures fiscal spillovers in the EU countries using a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model. Our aim is to look at the sign and the absolute values of fiscal spillovers in a country-wise perspective and at the time profile (impulse response) of the impacts of fiscal shocks. …Read More

The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: a new framework

Égert, Balázs, Gal, Peter, (2016), “The quantification of structural reforms in OECD countries: a new framework”, OECD Economic Department Working Paper No. 1354, 20 Δεκεμβρίου This document describes and discusses a new supply side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment and productivity through a production …Read More

On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings

Philippon, Thomas, Roldán, Francisco, (2016), “On the Optimal Speed of Sovereign Deleveraging with Precautionary Savings”, International Monetary Fund, Νοέμβριος We study the optimal path of reduction of government debt in an economy when the economy is depressed and there is significant sovereign default risk. We emphasize the endogenous response of savers to sovereign risk. We obtain two main results. First, this new macro-economic channel changes the tradeoff between the recessionary …Read More

Measuring the Uncertainty in Predicting Public Revenue

Mourre, Gilles, Astarita, Caterina, Maftei, Anamaria, (2016), “Measuring the Uncertainty in Predicting Public Revenue”, European Commission, Δεκέμβριος This paper provides an assessment of the uncertainty surrounding revenue predictions, through an ex post analysis of European Commission’s forecasts over the last 15 years. It estimates the forecast errors affecting revenue for all 28 Member States, using the different vintages of the autumn and spring Commission forecasts. It analyses both the direction …Read More

The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies

Romain Duval, Davide Furceri, (2016), “The Effects of Labor and Product Market Reforms: The Role of Macroeconomic Conditions and Policies”, International Monetary Fund, Νοέμβριος The paper estimates the dynamic macroeconomic effects of labor and product market reforms on output, employment and productivity, and explores how these vary with prevailing macreconomic conditions and policies. We apply a local projection method to a new dataset of major country- and country-sector-level reform shocks …Read More

Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union

Corsetti, Giancarlo, Dedola, Luca,  Jarociński, Marek, Maćkowiak, Bartosz, Schmidt, Sebastian, (2016), “Macroeconomic stabilization, monetary-fiscal interactions, and Europe’s monetary union“, European Central Bank,  Δεκέμβριος The euro area has been experiencing a prolonged period of weak economic activity and very low inflation. This paper reviews models of business cycle stabilization with an eye to formulating lessons for policy in the euro area. According to standard models, after a large recessionary shock accommodative monetary and …Read More