Hansen, Stephen, McMahon, Michael, (2016), “The nature and effectiveness of central-bank communication“, Voxeu, 3 Φεβρουαρίου. In addition to setting interest rates, central banks also communicate with the public about economic conditions and future actions. While it has been established that communication can drive expectations, less is known about how it does so. This column attempts to shed light on this question. Applying novel measures to the content of Federal Reserve statements, it …Read More

Kaletsky, Anatole, (2016), “The Three Fears Sinking Global Markets”, Social Europe Journal, 1 Φεβρουαρίου January is usually expected to be a good month for stock markets, with new money gushing into investment funds, while tax-related selling abates at the end of the year. Although the data on investment returns in the United States actually show that January profits have historically been on only slightly better than the monthly norm, the widespread belief …Read More

Economist, (2016), “A Nordic laggard can yet forge ahead with reforms”, Economist, 1 Φεβρουαρίου THE harbour may be frozen, but that does not stop a ferry with a few intrepid tourists on board from making its way through the ice to Suomenlinna, a former fortress and popular sight-seeing spot near Helsinki. Finns, whose country stretches from the Baltic Sea to the Arctic, are inured to hostile conditions, but their economy …Read More

Sachs, Jeffrey, (2016), “The Global Economy’s Marshmallow Test”, Project Syndicate, 27 Ιανουαρίου The world economy is experiencing a turbulent start to 2016. Stock markets are plummeting; emerging economies are reeling in response to the sharp decline in commodities prices; refugee inflows are further destabilizing Europe; China’s growth has slowed markedly in response to a capital-flow reversal and an overvalued currency; and the US is in political paralysis. A few central …Read More

Steil, Benn, Smith, Emma, (2016), “Emerging Markets Fear Yellen, But Need To Keep Their Eye On Draghi”, Forbes, 22 Ιανουαρίου In anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s first rate hike in nearly a decade, $500 billion in capital outflows slammed emerging markets (EMs) last year–a slow-motion version of the 2013 “taper tantrum,” when the Fed signaled that the era of quantitative easing was coming to an end.  Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Minenna, Marcello, (2016), “How …Read More

Wren Lewis, Simon, (2016), “German Exports And The Eurozone”, Social Europe Journal, 24 Ιανουαρίου I have argued that the low level of German wage increases before the financial crisis were a significant destabilising influence on the Eurozone, which also indirectly contributed to Germany taking a hard line on austerity. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Turner, A. (2014) “Germany’s Secret Credit Addiction“, Project Syndicate, 10 Νοεμβρίου. The Economist Explains: “Why the German economy is in a …Read More

Woong Kang, Dae, Ligthart, Nick, Mody, Ashoka, (2016), “The ECB and the Fed: A comparative narrative”, Voxeu, 19 Ιανουαρίου Although the Great Recession was viewed as a US problem, the Eurozone was affected by it from the start. This column compares the monetary policy responses to the Crisis by the Fed and the ECB. It argues that the US approach has been much more aggressive and proactive. The ECB failed to provide stimulus when needed, …Read More

Rachel, Łukasz,  D. Smith, Thomas, (2016), “Towards a global narrative on long-term real interest rates”, Voxeu, 15 Ιανουαρίου Many candidate explanations for the low level of real interest rates have been put forward. Less progress has been made on bringing together the different hypotheses into a unifying framework, on quantifying their relative importance and on predicting the future path for real interest rates. This column attempts to fill that gap, and suggests …Read More

Gros, Daniel, (2016), “The Threat That Will Save Europe”, Social Europe Journal, 11 Ιανουαρίου. For the European Union, 2015 was another year of fundamental challenges. Two key elements of European integration – the euro and border-free travel within the Schengen Area – were placed under severe strain. And neither is in the clear. Nonetheless, one development in 2015 offers reason to hope that EU leaders will move beyond “muddling through” to …Read More