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Six lessons about “real” people, Brexit, and the EU

Wolff, Guntram, (2016), “Six lessons about “real” people, Brexit, and the EU”, Bruegel, 27 Ιουνίου The result of the UK referendum on 23 June has been portrayed as a victory for “real people”. But what consequences will the result have, and how should the UK and EU now react?  “…this will be a victory for real people, a victory for ordinary people, a victory for decent people.” These are the words …Read More

Why it doesn’t make sense to hold bonds

Csullag, Balazs, Danielsson, Jon, Macrae, Robert, (2016), “Why it doesn’t make sense to hold bonds”, VoxEU, 27 Ιουνίου Investor demand for bonds is very high. This column argues that this is surprising because under almost any likely inflation scenario, including central banks merely hitting their target inflation rates, bondholders suffer large losses. The beneficiaries are sovereign and corporate borrowers; the losers are pension funds, insurance companies and some foreign exchange reserve funds. Meanwhile, …Read More

Testing the resilience of banking union

Stanislas de Finance, Risto Nieminen, (2016), “Testing the resilience of banking union”, European Added Value Unit PE 558.778, Απρίλιος This ‘Cost of Non-Europe Report’ examines the robustness of the Banking Union framework under various stress scenarios and identifies the cost of the lack of further European action in this field. The study suggests that the potential gains from a deepened Economic and Monetary Union would be substantial, should a new financial …Read More

Jumpstarting Europe’s Economy

Tyson, Laura, Labaye, Eric, (2016), “Jumpstarting Europe’s Economy”, Project Syndicate, 25 Ιουνίου Not so long ago, the notion of the European Central Bank handing out money to governments or directly to citizens – so-called “helicopter money” drops – would have seemed outlandish. But today a surprising number of mainstream economists and centrist politicians are endorsing the idea of monetary financing of stimulus measures in different forms.This represents a much-needed change …Read More

Making the Eurozone more resilient: What is needed now and what can wait?

Baldwin, Richard et al., (2016), “Making the Eurozone more resilient: What is needed now and what can wait?”, Voxeu, 25 Ιουνίου Britain voted to leave the EU. This is terrible news for the UK, but it is also bad news for the Eurozone. Brexit opens the door to all sorts of shocks, and dangerous political snowball effects. Now is the time to shore up the Eurozone’s resiliency. The situation is …Read More

Negative rates and seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down – the special case of the ECB

Gros, Daniel, (2016), “Negative rates and seigniorage: Turning the central bank business model upside down – the special case of the ECB”, Voxeu, 27  Ιουνίου The business of central banks used to be profitable – they issued cash and could invest the proceeds in the assets they liked. This column argues that the ECB has turned the old business model of central banks around. Today, it earns a stream of …Read More

Crisis and Public Support for the Euro, 1990–2014

Roth, F., Jonung, L., and Nowak-Lehmann D., F., (2016), “Crisis and Public Support for the Euro, 1990–2014”,  Journal of Common Market Studies, 54: 944–960, Ιούλιος This article analyses the evolution of public support for the single European currency, the euro, from 1990 to 2014 for a 12-country sample of the euro area (EA-12), focusing on the most recent period of the financial and sovereign debt crisis, starting in 2008. We …Read More

EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area

Nikola Bokan, Andrea Gerali, Sandra Gomes, Pascal Jacquinot, Massimiliano Pisani, (2016), “EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area”, ECB Working Paper 1923, Ιούνιος We incorporate financial linkages in EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area (EA) by including financial frictions and country-specific banking sectors. In this new version of the model, termed EAGLE-FLI (Euro Area and GLobal Economy …Read More

The European Central Bank: A Central Bank Operating In A Democratic Void

Ryan, John, (2016), “The European Central Bank: A Central Bank Operating In A Democratic Void”, Social Europe, 24 Ιουνίου The ECB is far more independent than the Federal Reserve, whose legal status is far weaker and which is directly accountable to Congress and the government. The ECB was supposed to be like the German central bank, the Bundesbank. It has, however, failed to emulate the distinctive attributes that made the …Read More

The Long-run Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Economic Growth: Evidence from Quantitative Case Studies

Kleis, Mischa, Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, (2016), “The Long-run Effect of Fiscal Consolidation on Economic Growth: Evidence from Quantitative Case Studies“, ZEW Discussion Paper No. 16-047, Ιούνιος We contribute to the literature on the long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on eco- nomic growth by applying a novel method for quantitative case studies. Relying on a qualitative (narrative) definition of fiscal consolidations based on an examination of historical policy documents and using the …Read More