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Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area

Merler, Silvia, (2015), ” Squaring the cycle: capital flows, financial cycles, and macro-prudential policy in the euro area”, Bruegel Publications, Νοέμβριος. The financial crisis has prompted a renewed interest in macro-prudential policy as a framework to address the stability of the financial system as a whole, rather than only its individual components. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the European macro-prudential discussion by establishing empirically the special challenges that …Read More

The Greek and Icelandic IMF programmes compared

Katsimi, Margarita, Zoega, Gylfi, (2015), “The Greek and Icelandic IMF programmes compared”, Voxeu, 19 Νοεμβρίου. Iceland and Greece were both seriously affected by the Global Crisis, yet their experiences with the implemented IMF programmes have been quite different. In Iceland the programme has been a success, whereas the one in Greece has been a failure. This column explains why this happened. First, Iceland’s external debt was de jure private, while Greece’s …Read More

Steady as She Goes— Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts”

Berger, Helge, Dowling, Thomas, Lanau, Sergi, Lian, Weicheng, Mrkaic, Mico, Rabanal, Pau, Sanjani, Marzie Taheri, (2015), “Steady as She Goes— Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts””, IMF, 6 Νοεμβρίου. Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach …Read More

Naughty students or the wrong school: why is the European Semester proving ineffective?

Darvas, Zsolt, Leandro, Álvaro, (2015), “Naughty students or the wrong school: why is the European Semester proving ineffective?”, Bruegel Blog, 18 Νοεμβρίου. The fundamental problem of economic policy coordination in the EU is that national policymakers are accountable to their national parliaments and focus on national interests, which in many cases differ widely in different member states. It is therefore not all that surprising that economic policy coordination in the EU hardly …Read More

Wage Moderation in Crises-Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area

Decressin, Jörg, Espinoza, Raphael, Halikias, Ioannis, Leigh, Daniel, Loungani, Prakash, Medas, Paulo, Mursula, Susanna, Schindler, Martin, Spilimbergo, Antonio, Xu,TengTeng, (2015), “Wage Moderation in Crises-Policy Considerations and Applications to the Euro Area”, IMF, Νοέμβριος. This paper discusses the short-run economic impact of wage moderation and the implications for policy in the context of the euro area crisis, with a focus on the roles of monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB). It explores the channels …Read More

The Distribution of Debt Across Euro Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions and Credit Conditions

Bover, Olympia, Casado, José Maria, Costa, Sonia, Du Caju, Philip, McCarthy,Yvonne, Sierminska, Eva, Tzamourani, Panagiota,  Villanueva, Ernesto, Zavadil,Tibor, (2015), “The Distribution of Debt Across Euro Area Countries: The Role of Individual Characteristics, Institutions and Credit Conditions”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we present an up-to-date assessment of the differences across euro area countries in the distributions of various measures of debt conditional on household characteristics. We consider three different …Read More

Why Turkish growth ended: An institutional perspective

Acemoglu, Daron, Üçer, Murat, (2015), “Why Turkish growth ended: An institutional perspective”, Voxeu, 18 Νοεμβρίου Following an anaemic performance with severe imbalances in the 1990s and a debilitating financial crisis in 2001, Turkey enjoyed a period of rapid economic growth. Since about 2007 onwards, however, economic growth has slowed significantly and productivity growth has stagnated. This column argues that, rather than providing another example of the ‘stop-and-go’ cycles typical of emerging economies, the …Read More

The IMF’s analysis of the Irish bailout

Vox editor’s,  “The IMF’s analysis of the Irish bailout”, Voxeu, 17 Νοέμβρη The IMF, together with CEPR and the Central Bank of Ireland, put on a conference that drew lessons from Ireland’s bailout package titled “Ireland: Lessons from its Recovery from the Bank-Sovereign Loop”. This column summarises the contributions by Eichengreen, Fatás and Schoenmaker, as well as panel comments by Christine Lagarde, Benoît Coeuré, Michael Noonan, and Valdis Dombrovskis. Σχετικές …Read More

Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe

Caliendo, Marco, Schmidl, Ricarda, (2015), “Youth Unemployment and Active Labor Market Policies in Europe”, IZA, Νοέμβριος. Since the economic crisis in 2008, European youth unemployment rates have been persistently high at around 20% on average. The majority of European countries spends significant resources each year on active labor market programs (ALMP) with the aim of improving the integration prospects of struggling youths. Among the most common programs used are training courses, job search …Read More

Economic Uncertainty and Structural Reforms

Bonfiglioli, Alessandra, Gancia, Gino A, (2015), “Economic Uncertainty and Structural Reforms”,Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. Does economic uncertainty promote the implementation of structural reforms? We answer this question using one of the most exhaustive cross-country panel data set on reforms in six major areas and measuring economic uncertainty with stock market volatility. To address endogeneity concerns, we propose various identification strategies, instrumenting uncertainty with world shocks to volatility and with natural disasters, …Read More