Aubrey, T., (2013), “Making Markets Work”, Policy Network, Οκτώβριος. How Effective Regulation Reduces Reliance on Taxation The complacency with which an ever increasing amount of tax payers’ money was used to counter the worst excesses of the market has weakened centre-left parties in the fall-out from the financial crisis. This form of redress is not only no longer politically viable, but it also fails to address the underlying cause of …Read More
Sovereigns versus banks: Crises, causes and consequences
Jordà,O., Schularick, M. and Taylor, A., (2013), “Sovereigns versus banks: Crises, causes and consequences”, VoxEU, 18 Οκτωβρίου. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, few would dispute the risks of excessive borrowing. But which debts should one worry about – public or private? This column presents new research on the interplay of public and private debts since 1870 in 17 advanced economies. History demonstrates that excessive private-sector borrowing plays …Read More
On graduation from fiscal procyclicality
Frankel, J., Vegh, C. and Vuletin, G., (2013), “On graduation from fiscal procyclicality”, Journal of Development Economics, 100(1):32-47. In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to …Read More
Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area: How Much Can Structural Reforms Ease the Pain?
Anderson, D., Hunt, B. and Snudden, S., (2013), “Fiscal Consolidation in the Euro Area: How Much Can Structural Reforms Ease the Pain?”, International Monetary Fund, Working Paper No.13/211, Οκτώβριος. The IMF’s Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is used to examine the scope for structural reforms in the euro area to offset the negative impact of fiscal consolidation required to put public debt back on a sustainable path. The …Read More
Bad and Good News on Euro Area Inflation
Watt, A., (2013), “Bad and Good News on Euro Area Inflation”, Social Europe Journal, 16 Οκτωβρίου. The latest euro area monthly inflation numbers are out and manage to give cause for both gloom and cheer. First the bad news: inflation is too low. The euro area average figure of just 1.1% is a cause for concern because it is so low – only a little over half what the ECB …Read More
The Return of Europe’s Debt Crisis
Das, S., (2013), “The Return of Europe’s Debt Crisis”, EconoMonitor, 16 Οκτωβρίου. Since mid-2012, the European financial crisis has been in remission, with the symptoms of the underlying disease temporarily suppressed. As treatment is discontinued and drugs lose efficacy, there is a high probability of a relapse. Taking the Waters… A combination of austerity programs, debt write-downs, the European Central Bank’s (“ECB”) commitment to “do whatever it takes” to preserve …Read More
Disentagling the Bond-CDS Nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market
Vuillemey, G. and Peltonen, T., (2013), “Disentagling the Bond-CDS Nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market”, European Central Bank, Working Paper No.1599, Οκτώβριος. This paper presents a stress test model for the CDS market, with a focus on the interplay between banks’ bond and CDS holdings. The model enables the analysis of credit risk transfer mechanisms, includes features of market and liquidity risk, and allows for contagious propagation …Read More
A ‘Poldermodel’ For The EU?
Van Waarden, F., (2013), “A ‘Poldermodel’ For The EU?”, Social Europe Journal, 16 Οκτωβρίου. National social policy programs across Europe have their roots in three different traditions of origin. There is the (partially British) liberalist regime, where programs are the outcome of supply and demand on markets; there is the (French) étatist tradition, where programs have been produced and are organized by the state; and there is the (Germanic) corporatist …Read More
Tax policy in (and for) hard times
Kean, M., (2013), “Tax policy in (and for) hard times”, VoxEU, 16 Οκτωβρίου. Tax policy, like everything else, has been through tough times since the onset of the crisis. First, tax policy was to stimulate the economy (Heady 2011). Now it is to help consolidate the fiscal position – always with considerable urgency and all in the midst of public anger and disquiet. What state has all this left our …Read More
Η Ελληνική Οικονομία 3/2013
ΙΟΒΕ, (2013), Η Ελληνική Οικονομία 3/2013, Αθήνα: Ίδρυμα Οικονομικών και Βιομηχανικών Ερευνών. Το ΙΟΒΕ εκδίδει την τρίτη έκθεσή του για το 2013, στο πλαίσιο των περιοδικών επισκοπήσεων της ελληνικής οικονομίας. Πραγματοποιείται σε μια κρίσιμη περίοδο για την Ελλάδα, καθώς βρίσκονται εν εξελίξει οι διαπραγματεύσεις με την τρόικα για τα δημοσιονομικά μέτρα της περιόδου 2014-2016, κατά τη διάρκεια της οποίας αναμένεται να ολοκληρωθεί η δημοσιονομική προσαρμογή της χώρας, καθώς και για …Read More