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The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations

Poghosyan, Tigran, Senhadji, Abdelhak, Cottarelli, Carlo, (2016), ” The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations“, ESM Working Paper Series, July 2016

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the US, Canada and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sharing) and 13-24 percent of permanent shocks (redistribution). This fiscal insurance largely operates through automatic stabilizers embedded in a central budget primarily through federal taxes and transfers to individuals, rather than transfers from the central government to state budgets. These results have implications for the design of fiscal risk-sharing mechanisms in the euro area.

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