Vickers, John (2019), “The case for market-based stress tests“, VOX CEPR Policy Portal, June The stability of the financial system depends on the capital of banks and other financial institutions. But the measurement of bank capital depends on regulatory accounting methods, which, as events a decade ago showed dramatically, do not always reflect economic realities in a timely fashion. This column argues that market-based measures should play a greater role in …Read More
The EU’s Secret Plan for a Catastrophic Grexit
Dendrinou, Victoria, Varvitsioti, Eleni (2019), “The EU’s Secret Plan for a Catastrophic Grexit“, Bloomberg, June The top-secret plan had been filed away in 2012, the previous time Greece had teetered on the edge of default. It was code-named “Croatia’s Accession to the European Union” to disguise that it was a doomsday scenario for the country farther south. Any hint it even existed would have sent Greece deeper into crisis, spooked financial …Read More
Working Paper Series: An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections
Kontogeorgos et all, Georgios, “Working Paper Series: An analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projections“, No 2291 / June 2019 The Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projection exercises constitute an important input to the ECB’s monetary policy. This work marks a thorough analysis of the Eurosystem/ECB projection errors by looking at criteria of optimality and rationality using techniques widely employed in the applied literature of forecast evaluation. In general, the results are encouraging and suggest …Read More
Is politics becoming one of the ECB’s biggest problems?
Machiarelli, Corrado (2019), “Is politics becoming one of the ECB’s biggest problems?”, Blogs.lse, June The number of Eurosceptic parties in the European Parliament is expected to play a role in the future of the Eurozone. Looking at the European election results for the 19 member countries, the Eurosceptics have gained 134 seats out of 751 total seats in the new Parliament, compared to 104 seats in the previous Parliament. The …Read More
Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area
ECB, (2019), “Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area”, June Although real GDP growth was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2019, recent indicators point to weaker growth in the second quarter and a moderate increase during the remainder of 2019. Economic sentiment indicators have continued to worsen across euro area countries over recent months, notably in sectors exposed to global trade. This reflects the ongoing weakness …Read More
What Brexit has taught Italy about its own prospects of leaving the EU
Gianluca Piccolino, Davide Angelucci and Pierangelo Isernia, (2019), “What Brexit has taught Italy about its own prospects of leaving the EU”, LSE EUROPP, 6 June If other countries were to follow the UK in voting to leave the EU, then Italy would be one of the most likely candidates. But what impact has Brexit had on Italian public opinion? Drawing on findings from a new survey, Gianluca Piccolino, Davide Angelucci …Read More
A European atlas of economic success and failure
Zsolt Darvas, Jan Mazza and Catarina Midoes, (2019), “A European atlas of economic success and failure”, Bruegel, 3 June Economic growth was diverse across EU regions, yet it is crucial to control for region-specific factors in assessing growth performance. We find that there are rather successful regions in many EU countries, suggesting that the EU can provide a good framework for growth. Yet the worst performers are more concentrated in …Read More
Euro area annual inflation down to 1.2%
Eurostat/Euro area annual inflation down to 1.2%/4 June 2019 Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 1.2% in May 2019, down from 1.7% in April according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. Relevant Posts Eurostat/Annual inflation up to 1.7% in the euro area/17 May 2019 Eurostat/Euro area annual inflation up to 1.7%/3 May 2019
European Parliament election results: The long view
Veron, Nicolas (2019), “European Parliament election results: The long view“, Bruegel.org, May Comments about the European Parliament election results are predictably all over the place, and typically reveal more about the commentator than anything else. To get a clearer sense of direction, it may be useful to compare the outcome not only with recent opinion polls, or the previous election, but also with all the other ones before. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις …Read More
Europe’s Citizens Say They Want a More Political EU
Jean Pisani-Ferry, (2019), “Europe’s Citizens Say They Want a More Political EU”, Project Syndicate, 30 May The recent European Parliament election suggests that a growing share of European voters sees things differently from national governments. Whereas citizens clearly used their votes to express policy preferences, very few governments are ready for a more political EU leadership. Relevant Posts James, Harold (2019), «Game of EU Thrones» , The Project-Syndicate.org, May Steve …Read More