Mohlmann, Jan, Suyker, Wim, (2015), “An update of Blanchard’s and Leigh’s estimates in ‘Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers ’”, Voxeu, 1 Δεκεμβρίου Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh’s work on growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers in 2009-2011 has been highly influential. This column extends their approach to recent years. The authors do not find convincing evidence for stronger-than-expected fiscal multipliers for EU countries during the sovereign debt crisis (2012-2013) or during the …Read More

Camacho, Máximo, Leiva-Leon, Danilo, Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, (2015), “Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks”, Voxeu, 1 December Today’s monetary policy effectiveness depends on expectations of future monetary policy. Shocks affect such expectations, but the nature of the shock matters. This column presents evidence that negative demand shocks lead markets to expect looser policy in the short run. Negative supply shocks lead to expectations of looser policy in the medium to long run. Unexpected expansions – …Read More

Daly, Kevin, Munday, Tim, (2015), “Accounting for differences in Europe’s post-Crisis growth”, Voxeu, 28 November The fallout from the Global Crisis and its aftermath has been deeply damaging for European output. This column uses a growth accounting framework to explore the pre-Crisis and post-Crisis growth dynamics of several European countries. The weakness of post-Crisis real GDP in the Eurozone manifested itself in a decline in employment and average hours worked. However, decomposing growth …Read More

Bofinger, Peter, (2015), “German wage moderation and the EZ Crisis”, Voxeu, 30 November The EZ ‘consensus narrative’ argues the Crisis should not be thought of as a government debt crisis in its origin. Instead it regards large intra-EZ capital flows that emerged in the decade before the Crisis as the real culprit. This column argues that while the narrative is correct, it is also incomplete. With its focus on the deficit …Read More

Janssen, Ronald, (2015), “Lost In Contradiction: The IMF And Competitive Wage Dumping In The Euro Area”, Social Europe Journal, 27 November A staff discussion note published recently by the IMF addresses the argument that squeezing wages across a large part of the euro area is dangerous and deflationary as it will not improve anyone’s relative competitive position while undercutting domestic demand everywhere. Since the IMF has always been a staunch …Read More