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Debt sustainability and economic convergence of Euro-area Member States: Challenges and Solutions

Mauro, P. (2015) “Debt sustainability and economic convergence of Euro-area Member States: Challenges and Solutions“, European Parliament, Directorate General for Internal Policies – Economic Governance Support Unit, February.   Abstract The Eurozone is at risk of economic stagnation and the crisis has led to the most pervasive and pronounced increase in government debt-to-GDP ratios since the Second World War. Member countries are facing vastly differing economic growth rates, with some …Read More

Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Eurozone consolidation

Gechert, S., Hughes Hallett, A. & Rannenberg, A. (2015) “Fiscal multipliers in downturns and the effects of Eurozone consolidation“, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Policy Insight No. 79, 25 February.   The literature on fiscal multipliers has expanded greatly since the outbreak of the Global Crisis. This column introduces CEPR Policy Insight 79, which reports on a meta-regression analysis of fiscal multipliers collected from a broad set of empirical reduced form …Read More

We are glimpsing at the outlines of a new economic system

Conversation by Lars Mensel and Max Tholl with Jeremy Rifkin: “We are glimpsing at the outlines of a new economic system”, The European Magazine, 25 February 2015.   Economist and bestselling author Jeremy Rifkin argues that our grandchildren will pity our working conditions and that a bright future is not a utopian dream but an achievable goal. The European: Mr. Rifkin, the visions you formulate in your recent book “The …Read More

Tax progressivity and the government’s ability to collect additional tax revenue

Holter, H., Krueger, D. & Stepanchuk, S. (2015) “Tax progressivity and the government’s ability to collect additional tax revenue“, VoxEU Organisation, 20 February.   Since the Global Crisis, debt sustainability has received increasing attention. This column argues that the maximum sustainable debt level depends negatively on the progressivity of the tax system. The authors estimate that the US is still relatively far from the peak of its Laffer curve and …Read More

Greece, Its International Creditors and the Euro

Sabri Öncü, T. (2015) “Greece, Its International Creditors and the Euro“, Naked Capitalism Blog, 17 February.   Yves here. This is an excellent background piece on how Greece got where it is and how its various bailouts were structured. It also helps explain the past and current roles the various members of the Troika play and discusses the prospects for Greece achieving its aims. By T ([email protected]), a financial economist …Read More

The Lunch Question – A Brief History of Inequality

Morris, I. (2015) “The Lunch Question – A Brief History of Inequality“, Global Affaris, STRATFOR Global Intelligence, 11 February.   At an event in Beijing last November, I had the good fortune to meet the French economist Thomas Piketty, who has sold 1.5 million copies of his book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, since it was first published in 2013. Pacing up and down in front of a packed auditorium, …Read More

Germany Emerges

Friedman, G. (2015) “Germany Emerges“, Geopolitical Weekly, STRATFOR Global Intelligence, 10 February.   German Chancellor Angela Merkel, accompanied by French President Francois Hollande, met with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 6. Then she met with U.S. President Barack Obama on Feb. 9. The primary subject was Ukraine, but the first issue discussed at the news conference following the meeting with Obama was Greece. Greece and Ukraine are not linked …Read More

Do derivatives make the world safer?

Vuillemey, G. (2015) “Do derivatives make the world safer?, VoxEU Organisation, 12 February.   The interest rate derivatives market has grown tenfold over the past 15 years. These contracts are mostly held by commercial banks, raising financial stability concerns. This column discusses how hedging using derivatives affects bank lending and the occurrence of bank defaults. The interest rate derivatives market is the largest market in the world, with an aggregate …Read More

Portugal must rebalance its economy and improve education to continue its economic recovery

Franco, F. (2015) “Portugal must rebalance its economy and improve education to continue its economic recovery“, LSE EUROPP, 12 February.   Portugal was one of the worst hit countries by the Eurozone crisis, but emerged from its bailout programme in 2014. As part of our ‘economies of Europe’ series, Francesco Franco provides an account of the development of the Portuguese economy since the crisis, including some of the key challenges …Read More

European Economic Forecast: Winter 2015

European Commission (2015) European Economic Forecast: Winter 2015, European Economy 1|2015, DG for Economic & Financial Affairs, February.   GDP growth in the EU remains sluggish. Sputtering investment has so far prevented a broader and more robust acceleration of domestic demand. Amid challenging global conditions, the fall in crude oil prices should provide a welcome boost to growth. Several important shifts are under way in the global economy. Falling oil …Read More