De Grauwe, Paul, (2016), “The ECB grants debt relief to all Eurozone nations except Greece”, Voxeu, 13 Μay Greece may be about to get some debt relief, although there is still resistance to the idea. This column argues that the ECB has been providing other Eurozone countries with debt relief since early 2015 through its programme of quantitative easing. The reason given for excluding Greece from the QE programme – the ‘quality’ …Read More
Chortareas, Georgios, Logothetis, Vasileios, Papandreou, Andreas A., (2016), “Political budget cycles and reelection prospects in Greece’s municipalities”, European Journal of Political Economy, Μay This paper considers the presence of political budget cycles in Greece’s municipalities. We construct a new dataset from primary sources and we find strong evidence of pre-electoral manipulation through increased expenditures and excessive borrowing. We use a dynamic panel data approach producing evidence of opportunistic behavior in local government …Read More
Morys Matthias, (2016), “Greece in a monetary union: Lessons from 100 years of exchange rate experience, 1841-1939”, Voxeu, 10 Μay The first century of modern Greek monetary history has striking parallels to the country’s current crisis, from repeated cycles of entry and exit from the dominant fixed exchange rate system, to government debt built-up and default, to financial supervision by West European countries. This column compares these two episodes in Greece’s monetary …Read More
Rocholl, J., and A. Stahmer (2016), “Where did the Greek bailout money go?”, ESMT White Paper No. WP–16–02 This paper analyzes the flow of money for the different Greek bailout funds and concentrates on two key questions. First, where did the money come from? Second, where did the money go to? Finally, the paper discusses the findings in a broader context and derives policy implications. Figure 1 presents the main …Read More
Darvas, Zsolt, Hutl, Pia, (2016), “Is Greek public debt unsustainable?”, Bruegel, 7 May Greek public debt does not look sustainable if the country has to return to market borrowing at the end of the third bail-out programme, but could be sustainable if preferential ESM funding continues in the long-term. Our advice is to offer hope for Greece in the form of delayed fiscal adjustment toward a target of 2.5% of GDP …Read More
Bernegger,Michael, (2016), “The Greek Tragedy And Its Solution”, Social Europe OP 8, June 2015 Ostensibly, the Greek crisis is about sovereign debt. It appears to result from a too expansionary fiscal policy and a loss in price competitiveness since the launch of the euro. This competitive weakness, it is claimed, can be attributed to an excessive rise in labour costs in relation to anaemic macroeconomic productivity growth. In reality, the core …Read More
Potrafke,Niklas, Reischmann, Markus (2016), “How to Handle the Crisis in Greece? Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economics Experts”, CESifo Working Paper No. 5860, April 2016 We asked experts from 113 countries polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey for their opinions on how to handle the crisis in Greece. 61.9% of the experts surveyed were not in favour of Greece exiting the Eurozone in the course of the negotiations held in …Read More
El-Arian, Mohamed A., (2016), “Time for Debt Reduction in Greece”, Project Syndicate, 22 April Once again, Greece is at an inflection point. With its cash balances severely stressed, it seems unlikely to be able to pay the cascading debt payments that are falling due over the next few months. So yet another round of contentious and protracted discussions with its creditors is underway – one that may well produce yet another short-term …Read More
Spellman, James D. , (2016), “As European Central Bank Convenes, How Well Has Maestro Mario Performed?”, The European Institute, March2016 Euphoria in financial markets can burn off as fast as fireworks, an explosive flare-up and then, poof, gone. Many investors are wondering if the unprecedented initiatives by the European Central Bank, including negative interest rates, may be just like that, a cascade of fleeting embers. Others, though, think the restructuring underway …Read More
Tinios, Platon, (2016), “The Greek Pension Tragedy: A case of failure in Governance”, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, 14 April The Greek pension system is one of the least successful in the world. Without providing income security at old age, it, nevertheless, hastened bankruptcy in 2010; six years later, pensions are about to derail the third successive bailout. The usual explanation splits the period in two: Failure up to 2010 was due to …Read More
