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The Deal on Greek Debt: Political Gamechanger for Europe, Tactical Retreat (not Surrender) by Tsipras

Howse,  Robert, (2015), “The Deal on Greek Debt: Political Gamechanger for Europe, Tactical Retreat (not Surrender) by Tsipras”, Verfassungsblog.de, 13 July The conventional wisdom, delivered before anyone could really ponder the fine print of the Greek debt deal, is that Tsipras surrendered to the creditors in a humiliating defeat.  His referendum and prior tenacity in negotiations proved futile,according to the predominant account that has emerged in the media and the …Read More

EU crises and integrational panic: the role of the media

Cross, Mai’ai K. Davis, Ma, Xinru, (2015), “EU crises and integrational panic: the role of the media”, Journal of European and Public Policy, Volume 22, Issue 8, pages 1053-1070, 26 January 2015. Even a casual look at the history of the European Union (EU) since its inception in 1957 shows that at numerous junctures through its development the EU (or European Economic Community/European Community [EEC/EC] in its previous incarnations) has …Read More

Hollande proposes a Eurozone government

Scarpetta, Vincenzo, (2015), “Hollande proposes a Eurozone government”, Open Europe blog, 20 July Almost inevitably, the Greek crisis has reignited the debate over the future of Eurozone integration. Whatever happens with Greece – the country’s euro exit is definitely not off the table – it is clear that, at least in terms of rhetoric and intentions, we are likely to witness a renewed push for closer ties among the countries sharing …Read More

Inequality and Labor Market Institutions

Jaumotte, Florence, Osorio Buitron, Carolina, (2015), “Inequality and Labor Market Institutions”, IMF Staff Discussion Note, SDN /15/14, July The rise of inequality in advanced economies, and in particular the growing concentration of incomes at the top of the distribution, has become a greater focus of attention for economists and policymakers. Understanding the factors behind this phenomenon is essential to determine whether policy action is needed to reduce income inequality, taking into account other policy objectives. Traditional …Read More

The great collapse in value added trade

Stehrer, Robert, Nagengast, Arne, (2015), “The great collapse in value added trade”, ECB Working Paper Series, No 1833 / July 2015 This paper studies the great collapse in value added trade using a structural decomposition analysis. We show that changes in vertical specialisation accounted for almost half of the great trade collapse, while the previous literature on gross trade has mainly focused on fi nal expenditure, in-ventory adjustment and adverse credit supply conditions. The decline in …Read More

Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis

Jimeno, Juan, (2015), “Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis”, ECB Working Paper Series, No 1832 / July 2015 The Great Recession and the subsequent European crisis may have long-lasting effects on aggregate demand, aggregate supply, and, hence, on macroeconomic performance over the medium and long-run. Besides the fact that financial crisis last longer and are succeeded by slower recoveries, and apart from the hysteresis effects that may operate after episodes of long-term unemployment, the combination of high …Read More

Understanding past and future financial crises

Olivier Gourinchas, Pierre, Obstfeld, Maurice, (2015), “Understanding past and future financial crises”, Voxeu, 21 July What explains the different effects of the crisis around the world? This column compares the 2007–09 crisis to earlier episodes of banking, currency, and sovereign debt distress and identifies domestic-credit booms and real currency appreciation as the most significant predictors of future crises, in both advanced and emerging economies. It argues these results could help policymakers determine the …Read More

Political Union Now!

Techau, Jan, (2015), “Political Union Now!”, Carnegie Europe, 13 July Let’s put aside Angela Merkel’s economic wisdom in the Greek crisis for the moment. To be sure, as an economics layman with a penchant for fiscal conservatism, Merkel’s alleged toughness sounded reasonable to me, partly because it was well cushioned by enormous generosity. I think she basically had it right, and that her strategy for the euro crisis was better than …Read More

Europe’s Civil War

Slaughter, Anne-Marie, (2015), “Europe’s Civil War”, Project Syndicate, 21 July The negotiations leading up to the latest tentative deal on Greece’s debt brought into relief two competing visions of the European Union: the flexible, humane, and political union espoused by France, and the legalistic and economy-focused union promoted by Germany. As François Heisbourg recently wrote, “By openly contemplating the forced secession of Greece [from the eurozone], Germany has demonstrated that …Read More

The Myth Of The EU’s €35bn Investment Package For Greece

Kühnlenz, Andre, (2015), “The Myth Of The EU’s €35bn Investment Package For Greece”, Social Europe Journal, 21 July We can all recall an enthusiastic Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker. Shortly before negotiations with Greece broke off at the end of June he supposedly promised Alexis Tsipras an investment package worth €35bn. At first glance this sounded pretty generous, particularly for a country in which, since 2010, the stock of capital has …Read More