Miles, D. (2014) “‘Mensch tracht, und Gott lacht’ – what’s the best guidance on monetary policy?“, VoxEU Organisation, 22 October.   Many central banks embrace forward guidance by announcing expected interest rate paths. But how likely it is that actual rates will be close to expected ones? This column argues that quantifying such uncertainty poses great difficulties. Precise probability statements in a world of uncertainty (not just risk) can be …Read More

Hancké, B. (2014) “Two years after Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment, the Eurozone is once again staring into the abyss“, LSE EUROPP, 21 October.   Growth in the Eurozone has declined significantly over recent months, raising fears that Europe could be heading toward another economic crisis. Bob Hancké writes on what it would take to generate growth in Eurozone states. He argues that the best – and possibly only …Read More

Ghosh, R. A., Qureshi Saeed, M. & Sugawara, N. (2014) “Regulating Capital Flows at Both Ends: Does it Work?“, IMF Publications, Working Paper 14/188, 17 October.   This paper examines whether cross-border capital flows can be regulated by imposing capital account restrictions (CARs) in both source and recipient countries, as was originally advocated by John Maynard Keynes and Harry Dexter White. To this end, we use data on bilateral cross-border …Read More

Jordana, J. & Rosas, G. (2014) “Making regulatory agencies independent is not always a recipe for better decision-making“, LSE EUROPP, 16 October.   The principle of making certain bodies independent from government, such as regulatory agencies or central banks, has become popular in a number of contexts over recent decades. As Jacint Jordana and Guillermo Rosas write, the basic assumption underpinning the principle is that electoral pressures can have a …Read More