Elena Andreou, Snezana Eminidou, Marios Zachariadis, (2016), “Inflation expectations and monetary policy in Europe”, CEPR DP11306,  June We use monthly data across fifteen euro-area economies for the period 1985:1-2015:3 to obtain different monetary policy shocks pertaining to more versus less informed individuals. We then investigate how these affect inflation expectations of different types of consumers before and after the incidence of the recent Crisis. Shocks obtained based on the assumption that …Read More

Giuseppe Bertola, (2016), “Labor policies and capital mobility in theory and in EMU”, European Economic Review Volume 87, August Europe׳s Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) was characterized by large international imbalances and uneven national labor market reforms. In this paper׳s model, labor policies that aim to increase the welfare of capital-poor individuals within each country are influenced by financial integration across differently capital-abundant countries. The model predicts that capital outflows should be associated …Read More

Daphne Halikiopoulou, Tim Vlandas, (2016), “Risks, Costs and Labour Markets: Explaining Cross-National Patterns of Far Right Party Success in European Parliament Elections”, Journal of Common Market Studies  Volume 54, Issue 3, May Does the economy affect patterns of far-right party support across countries? This article reconceptualizes micro-level analyses that focus on the effect of unemployment through a framework of costs, risks and the mediating role of labour market institutions. It then derives …Read More

Philip Du Caju, François Rycx, Ilan Tojerow, (2016), “Unemployment risk and over-indebtedness”,ECB WP No. 1908, May We study how unemployment affects the over-indebtedness of households using the new European Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS). First, we assess the role of different labor market statuses (i.e. employed, unemployed, disabled, retired, etc.) and other household characteristics (i.e. demographics, housing status, household wealth and income, etc.) to determine the likelihood of over-indebtedness. …Read More

Nicoletta Batini, Giovanni Melina, Stefania Villa, (2016), “Fiscal Buffers, Private Debt, and Stagnation : The Good, the Bad and the Ugly”, IMF WP No. 16/104 We revisit the empirical relationship between private/public debt and output, and build a model that reproduces it. In the model, the government provides financial assistance to credit-constrained agents to mitigate deleveraging. As we observe in the data, surges in private debt are potentially more damaging for …Read More