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Exchange rate prediction redux

Cheung, Yin-Wong, Chinn, Menzie , Pascual, Antonio Garcia, Zhang, Yi, (2017), “Exchange rate prediction redux”, Vox Eu, 27 Απριλίου Over the past decade, advanced economy exchange rates have exhibited substantial variability, even as conventional empirical determinants – such as interest rates and inflation – have remained fairly stable. At the same, the Global Crisis was associated with unprecedented levels of risk and illiquidity, with obvious effects on financial markets. These developments …Read More

ECB Meeting Comes at a Precarious Time for Markets

Emons, Ben, (2017), “ECB Meeting Comes at a Precarious Time for Markets”, Bloomberg View, 25 Απριλίου The recent economic data out of the euro zone is encouraging. Production, manufacturing and confidence are robust, and inflation has stabilized. That’s not to say that there aren’t risks to the downside, such as growing populism, global geopolitical tensions, and uncertainty about sustainability of the economic recovery. To insure against these risks, the European …Read More

The European Fund for Strategic Investments as a New Type of Budgetary Instrument

Rinaldi, David, Núñez Ferrer, Jorge, (2017), “The European Fund for Strategic Investments as a New Type of Budgetary Instrument”, CEPS Research Report No 2017/07, 5 Απριλίου This paper provides an overview of the European Fund for Strategic Investments (EFSI) as a budgetary instrument. A preliminary analysis of the quantitative impact of its first year and a half of activity is complemented by an outline of the corollary policies that can …Read More

Ισλανδία: Τριγμοί μετά την άρση των capital controls

Η Καθημερινή, (2017), “Ισλανδία: Τριγμοί μετά την άρση των capital controls”, 25 Απριλίου 2017 Τις δυσκολίες που συνεπάγεται η προσπάθεια μιας χώρας να απεμπλακεί από τους ελέγχους στις κινήσεις κεφαλαίων, όταν αυτοί έχουν επιβληθεί σε κατάσταση εκτάκτου ανάγκης, αποτελεί η περίπτωση της Ισλανδίας και η τύχη του νομίσματός της, της ισλανδικής κορώνας. Λίγες εβδομάδες μετά την άρση των ελέγχων στις κινήσεις κεφαλαίων, που επί οκτώ χρόνια είχαν περιφρουρήσει το ισλανδικό …Read More

Draghi’s Stimulus Could Blunt Populism as Unemployment Falls

Speciale, Alessandro, (2017), “Draghi’s Stimulus Could Blunt Populism as Unemployment Falls”, Bloomberg Markets, 25 Απριλίου Mario Draghi’s stimulus didn’t prevent the rise of populists who want to reject the euro, but it might be taking the edge off the economic pain that fueled their support. The European Central Bank president has pushed through measures that have led the currency bloc out of a double-dip recession and cut unemployment, a key source of …Read More

The ECB’s Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis?

Collignon, Stefan, Diessner, Sebastian, (2017), “The ECB’s Monetary Dialogue with the European Parliament: Efficiency and Accountability during the Euro Crisis?”, Journal of Common Market Studies, Ιούλιος The monetary dialogue between the European Parliament and the European Central Bank (ECB) is a key component for the democratic accountability of the independent central bank. We provide new evidence for the efficiency of the dialogue and present the results of a survey conducted amongst the …Read More

Οι καταναλωτές στην Ευρωζώνη υποβαθμίζουν τους πολιτικούς κινδύνους

Scmieding,Holger , Pickering, Kallum , Hense, Florian, (2017), “Οι καταναλωτές στην Ευρωζώνη υποβαθμίζουν τους πολιτικούς κινδύνους”, Καθημερινή, 22 Απριλίου Στις αρχές του 2016 η κατάρρευση των τιμών του πετρελαίου είχε αυξήσει σημαντικά το πραγματικό εισόδημα των καταναλωτών, επιτρέποντάς τους να ξοδέψουν περισσότερα χρήματα για άλλα αγαθά και υπηρεσίες αφού είχε περιοριστεί σημαντικά ο λογαριασμός για πετρέλαιο και φυσικό αέριο. Αυτό που είναι πολύ ενδιαφέρον είναι πως η πρόσφατη άνοδος των τιμών …Read More

Results of the April 2017 euro area bank lending survey

European Central Bank, (2017), “Results of the April 2017 euro area bank lending survey”, ECB, 25 Απριλίου Credit standards for loans to enterprises eased slightly in net terms in the first quarter of 2017, according to the April 2017 bank lending survey (BLS). The net easing (-2%) of credit standards – i.e. banks’ internal guidelines or loan approval criteria – follows a net tightening of 5% in the previous quarter …Read More

France After the Election: What Next for Economic Policy in Europe?

Kahn, Robert, (2017), “France After the Election: What Next for Economic Policy in Europe?”, CFR, 24 Απριλίου French election results show Emmanuel Macron in first place with 23.9 percent of the vote and Marine Le Pen in second with 21.4 percent, setting the stage for a run-off election on May 7. Early polls show a comfortable edge for Macron, the pro-E.U. former economy minister who ran on a campaign of …Read More

Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities

Abad, Jorge, D’Errico, Marco, Killeen, Neill, Luz, Vera, Peltonen, Tuomas, Portes, Richard, Urbano, Teresa, (2017), “Mapping the interconnectedness between EU banks and shadow banking entities”, Vox EU, 25 Απριλίου 2017 The Global Crisis exposed shortcomings in the assessment of cross-sector and cross-border linkages in the financial system. The interaction of banks and insurance corporations with shadow banking entities led to the amplification of risks and spillovers which were transmitted across sectors …Read More