ECB, (2019), “ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area”, Μάρτιος Real GDP growth remained unexpectedly sluggish in the fourth quarter of 2018, and recent indicators point to substantially weaker than previously expected activity also in the first half of 2019. While some temporary factors are likely to have contributed to the slowdown in activity in late 2018, the broad-based worsening of economic sentiment indicators across countries and sectors in …Read More

Gilles Saint-Paul, (2019), “From microeconomic favouritism to macroeconomic populism”, VoxEU, 7 Μαρτίου Macroeconomic populism typically leads to higher levels of public debt, public spending, deficits, and crises. Nevertheless, this column argues that it is rational for groups of voters to vote for a populist who reflects their interests, because they will be favoured when a fiscal adjustment occurs. The greater the fiscal adjustment required, the more likely voters are to elect a …Read More

Bloomberg, (2019), “Europe Isn’t Ready for the Next Recession”, 8 Μαρτίου The European Central Bank surprised financial markets yesterday with moves to loosen monetary policy. The prospects for growth in the euro zone have dimmed lately, and policy was going to be tweaked at some point unless things picked up. But a change wasn’t expected so soon. ECB President Mario Draghi and his colleagues are apparently worried. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Ashoka …Read More

Marcin Bielecki, Michal Brzoza-Brzezina and Marcin Kolasa, (2019), “The impact of population ageing on monetary policy”, VoxEU, 5 Μαρτίου Population ageing is likely to affect many areas of life, from pension system sustainability to housing markets. This column shows that monetary policy can be considered another victim. Low fertility rates and increasing life expectancy substantially lower the natural rate of interest. As a consequence, central banks are more likely to …Read More

Christian Keuschnigg and Michael Kogler, (2019), “Trade and innovation: The Schumpeterian role of banks”, VoxEU, 4 Μαρτίου Only strong banks can fulfil their Schumpeterian role by efficiently reallocating credit. The column argues that high capital standards, efficient bankruptcy laws, and a lower cost of bank equity improve credit reallocation and thereby support the productive specialisation of the economy. An efficient banking sector also magnifies the gains from trade liberalisation by …Read More

OECD, (2019), “Portugal can use its economic recovery to build up resilience”, OECD, 18 Φεβρουαρίου Portugal’s economic recovery is now well established, with GDP back to pre-crisis levels, a substantially lower unemployment rate and renewed investment and domestic consumption now joining a robust export sector to drive the economy. Efforts should now focus on reducing vulnerabilities to build resilience to future shocks, according to a new OECD report. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις …Read More

Paul Taylor, (2019), “Why the eurozone is going backwards”, Politico, 4 Μαρτίου The destructive beast of nationalism is back on the prowl in Europe’s banking sector. Seven years after European leaders agreed to crisis-proof the Continent’s banks by bringing much of the sector under the supervision of the EU, national governments and regulators are undermining the effort. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Jurgen Stark, (2018), «The Eurozone’s Solidarity Fallacy», Project Syndicate, 17 Δεκεμβρίου …Read More

Konstantinos Efstathiou and Guntram B. Wolff, (2019), “What to look out for in the latest European Semester package”, Bruegel, 26 Φβερουαρίου Implementation of the European Commission’s country-specific policy recommendations (CSRs) is at a low rate overall. Whether this trend has continued, particularly among those countries judged to have excessive macroeconomic imbalances, will be evident in the soon-to-be-released reports of the Commission. Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις Steven Blockmans (ed.), (2019) “What Comes After …Read More