Ahir, H. & Loungani, P. (2014) “‘There will be growth in the spring:’ How well do economists predict turning points?“, VoxEU Organisation, 14 Απριλίου. Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens. Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the …Read More
Government wages and labour market outcomes
European Commission (2014) “Government wages and labour market outcomes”, European Economy. Occasional Papers, Απρίλιος 2014: Βρυξέλλες. As most European countries are trying to consolidate public finances, whilst also attempting to improve cost competitiveness for external rebalancing and abate unemployment, it is crucial to assess government wage formation, its outcomes and interaction with private sector labour costs. This paper provides an overview of government wage setting regimes, an empirical analysis …Read More
What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?
Kollmann, R., Ratto, M., Roeger, W., In’t Veld, J. & Vogel, L. (2014) “What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states?”, European Economy, Economic Papers, Απρίλιος 2014. We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany’s current account surplus after the …Read More
Losing Interest
Eichengreen, B. (2014) “Losing Interest“, Project Syndicate, 11Απριλίου. BERKELEY – Two of the world’s most prominent economic institutions, the International Monetary Fund and Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, recently warned that the global economy may be facing an extended period of low interest rates. Why is that a bad thing, and what can be done about it? Adjusted for inflation, interest rates have been falling for three decades, …Read More
The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone
Auer, R. (2014) “The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone“, VoxEU Organisation, 11 Απριλίου. Some view the improvements in current accounts for Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as short-lived – the result of a temporary compression of import demand that is likely to be reversed as the recession eases. This column argues the contrary, based on the fact that their improving trade balances reflect better export performance. This development …Read More
The proposed EU Financial Transactions Tax is both illogical and likely to be economically damaging
Grahl, J. & Lysandrou, P. (2014) “The proposed EU Financial Transactions Tax is both illogical and likely to be economically damaging“, LSE EUROPP, 09 Απριλίου. In 2011, the European Commission proposed a Financial Transactions Tax (FTT) to raise revenue from the financial sectors in EU countries following the financial crisis. To date, however, only 11 EU states have so far agreed to implement such a tax. John Grahl and …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
How much do countries benefit from membership in the European Union?
Campos, F. N., Coricelli, F. & Moretti, L. (2014) “How much do countries benefit from membership in the European Union?”, VoxEU Organisation, 09 Απριλίου. In the wake of the recent crisis, the debate about the economic benefits from EU membership has intensified. This column presents new results about the benefits countries derive from becoming EU members, using data from the 1980s and 2004 enlargements. There are substantial positive pay-offs, …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Πολιτική » Άρθρα Γνώμης
Europe’s Bogus Banking Union
Legrain, P. (2014) “Europe’s Bogus Banking Union“, Project Syndicate, 08 Απριλίου. LONDON – After a 16-hour marathon negotiating session ending on March 20, politicians, technocrats, and journalists were all keen to declare the deal on the final piece of Europe’s banking union a success. But appearances are deceptive. While the “banking union” may soon exist on paper, in practice the eurozone banking system is likely to remain fragmented along …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
The lost generation: what is true about the myth…
Esposito, M. & Tse, T. (2014) “The lost generation: what is true about the myth…”, LSE – Euro Crisis in the Press, 07 Απριλίου. If we were to believe the forecasts from the European Commission, unemployment in the Eurozone appears to have started – at long last – showing signs of small but fragile recovery. However, that does not mean we can rest on our laurels as the economic …Read More
Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing
Noss, J. & Toffano, P. (2014) “Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing“, VoxEU Organisations, 06 Απριλίου. The impact of tighter regulatory capital requirements during an economic upswing is a key question in macroprudential policy. This column discusses research suggesting that an increase of 15 basis points in aggregate capital ratios of banks operating in the UK is associated with a median reduction …Read More