Ahir, H. & Loungani, P. (2014) “‘There will be growth in the spring:’ How well do economists predict turning points?“, VoxEU Organisation, 14 Απριλίου.
Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens.
Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the world has been in a state of economic winter: nearly 50 countries were in recession in 2009 and 15 countries slipped into recession in 2012. After weak global growth in 2013, economic forecasters are predicting a rosier outlook this year and next. Can these forecasts be trusted? Or are forecasters simply intoning – like Chauncey Gardner, the character played by Peter Sellers in the movie Being There – that “there will be growth in the spring”?
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Darvas, Z. & Wolff, B. G. (2014) “Europe’s social problem and its implications for economic growth“, Bruegel Policy Brief, 01 Απριλίου.
- Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., Mulas-Granados, C. (2014) “Fiscal adjustment and growth: Beware of the credit constraints“, VoxEU Organisation, 31 Μαρτίου.
- Ostry, J., Berg, A. Tsangarides, C. (2014) “Redistribution, inequality, and the sustainable growth: Reconsidering the evidence”, Voxeu.org, 6 Μαρτίου.