Merler, S. (2014) “Shrinking times – ECB excess liquidity falls below €100 billion”, Bruegel Think Tank, 24 Απριλίου   Over the last 5 years, the Eurozone financial system has been flooded with liquidity, due to the ECB’s very special response to the very special bank-sovereign euro crisis. In 2008, faced with an almost frozen interbank market, the ECB changed the way it allocates the Central Bank’s funds, introducing a policy …Read More

Ferrantino, J. M. & Taglioni, D. (2014) “Global value chains in the current trade slowdown”, VoxEU Organisation, 06 Απριλίου.   Recent growth in trade has decelerated significantly since its sharp recovery in 2010. This column discusses the role of global value chains in international trade and their contribution to the trade slowdown. Trade in complex products organised by global value chains, in particular motor vehicles, has been more sensitive to …Read More

Ahir, H. & Loungani, P. (2014) “‘There will be growth in the spring:’ How well do economists predict turning points?“, VoxEU Organisation, 14 Απριλίου.   Forecasters have a poor reputation for predicting recessions. This column quantifies their ability to do so, and explores several reasons why both official and private forecasters may fail to call a recession before it happens. Since the onset of the Great Recession, much of the …Read More

Eichengreen, B. (2014) “Losing Interest“, Project Syndicate, 11Απριλίου.   BERKELEY – Two of the world’s most prominent economic institutions, the International Monetary Fund and Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, recently warned that the global economy may be facing an extended period of low interest rates. Why is that a bad thing, and what can be done about it? Adjusted for inflation, interest rates have been falling for three decades, …Read More

Auer, R. (2014) “The increasing competiveness of the southern Eurozone“, VoxEU Organisation, 11 Απριλίου.   Some view the improvements in current accounts for Greece, Italy, Portugal, and Spain as short-lived – the result of a temporary compression of import demand that is likely to be reversed as the recession eases. This column argues the contrary, based on the fact that their improving trade balances reflect better export performance. This development …Read More

Noss, J. & Toffano, P. (2014) “Estimating the impact of changes in aggregate bank capital requirements during an upswing“, VoxEU Organisations, 06 Απριλίου.   The impact of tighter regulatory capital requirements during an economic upswing is a key question in macroprudential policy. This column discusses research suggesting that an increase of 15 basis points in aggregate capital ratios of banks operating in the UK is associated with a median reduction …Read More

Campos, F. N., Coricelli, F. & Moretti, L. (2014) “The eye, the needle and the camel: Rich countries can benefit from EU membership“, VoxEU Organisation, 05 Aπριλίου.   One concern with EU enlargement is that relatively poorer countries benefit more from becoming members. This column uses data from the 1973 and 1995 enlargements to show that richer countries also benefited a lot from joining the EU. Per capita incomes would …Read More

Mabbett, D. & Schelkle, W. (2014) “The lack of monetary sovereignty is not the reason Eurozone countries struggled during the crisis“, LSE EUROPP, 04 Απριλίου.   One of the most widespread arguments about the Eurozone crisis is that countries such as Greece, Spain and Italy have been hamstrung by their lack of monetary sovereignty and the ability to devalue their own currency. Deborah Mabbett and Waltraud Schelkle assess this perspective …Read More

Baldacci, E., Gupta, S., Mulas-Granados, C. (2014) “Fiscal adjustment and growth: Beware of the credit constraints“, VoxEU Organisation, 31 Μαρτίου.   The recent debate on the link between austerity and growth has focused on the short run. This column discusses recent research into the link between fiscal consolidation and medium-term growth under different financial conditions. If credit is not available to consumers and investors, private demand is less able to …Read More