Mohlmann, Jan, Suyker, Wim, (2015), “An update of Blanchard’s and Leigh’s estimates in ‘Growth Forecast Errors and Fiscal Multipliers ’”, Voxeu, 1 Δεκεμβρίου Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh’s work on growth forecast errors and fiscal multipliers in 2009-2011 has been highly influential. This column extends their approach to recent years. The authors do not find convincing evidence for stronger-than-expected fiscal multipliers for EU countries during the sovereign debt crisis (2012-2013) or during the …Read More
Unlearning economic paradigms
Cohen-Setton, Jeremie, (2015), “Unlearning economic paradigms”, Bruegel publications, 30 Νοεμβρίου What’s at stake: Both the crisis, its aftermath, and the empirical econ revolution have changed our understanding of economics. Conventional wisdoms about the supply side of the economy, the length of the short run, or the international adjustment process are all being challenged. Even conventional microeconomic wisdoms about the role of minimum wages and welfare programs are being challenged by …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks
Camacho, Máximo, Leiva-Leon, Danilo, Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, (2015), “Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks”, Voxeu, 1 Δεκεμβρίου Today’s monetary policy effectiveness depends on expectations of future monetary policy. Shocks affect such expectations, but the nature of the shock matters. This column presents evidence that negative demand shocks lead markets to expect looser policy in the short run. Negative supply shocks lead to expectations of looser policy in the medium to long run. Unexpected expansions – …Read More
Accounting for differences in Europe’s post-Crisis growth
Daly, Kevin, Munday, Tim, (2015), “Accounting for differences in Europe’s post-Crisis growth”, Voxeu, 28 Νοεμβρίου The fallout from the Global Crisis and its aftermath has been deeply damaging for European output. This column uses a growth accounting framework to explore the pre-Crisis and post-Crisis growth dynamics of several European countries. The weakness of post-Crisis real GDP in the Eurozone manifested itself in a decline in employment and average hours worked. However, decomposing growth …Read More
German wage moderation and the EZ Crisis
Bofinger, Peter, (2015), “German wage moderation and the EZ Crisis”, Voxeu, 30 Νοεμβρίου The EZ ‘consensus narrative’ argues the Crisis should not be thought of as a government debt crisis in its origin. Instead it regards large intra-EZ capital flows that emerged in the decade before the Crisis as the real culprit. This column argues that while the narrative is correct, it is also incomplete. With its focus on the deficit …Read More
Lost In Contradiction: The IMF And Competitive Wage Dumping In The Euro Area
Janssen, Ronald, (2015), “Lost In Contradiction: The IMF And Competitive Wage Dumping In The Euro Area”, Social Europe Journal, 27 Νοεμβρίου A staff discussion note published recently by the IMF addresses the argument that squeezing wages across a large part of the euro area is dangerous and deflationary as it will not improve anyone’s relative competitive position while undercutting domestic demand everywhere. Since the IMF has always been a staunch …Read More
On the separation of monetary and prudential policy: how much of the pre-crisis consensus remains?
G Cecchetti, Stephen, (2015), “On the separation of monetary and prudential policy: how much of the pre-crisis consensus remains?”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Νοέμβριος. Prior to the crisis, monetary policymakers and prudential authorities had clearly defined tools and goals with little or no conflict. The crisis revealed a variety of overlaps, where one set of policies seem to influence those in another. Does this mean that two policy realms …Read More
Iceland’s seven meagre years
Gylfason, Thorvaldur, (2015), “Iceland’s seven meagre years”, Voxeu, 26 Νοεμβρίου. Seven years after its crisis, Iceland has staged an economic recovery. This column suggests that despite its overall success, the current economic situation in Iceland is not devoid of problems. Insufficient competition in certain areas keeps real wages lower in Iceland compared to other Nordic countries. The current government in power seems not to have learned enough from the crash of 2008. …Read More
Βιβλιοθήκη » EE » Οικονομία » Άρθρα Γνώμης
Ten Questions for the Global Economy
Bocchi, Alessandro Magnoli, (2015), “Ten Questions for the Global Economy”, Economonitor, 25 Νοεμβρίου. The fundamental structure of the world economy is changing. While the contribution of services to global output is on the rise, investment and productivity remain stagnant, savings keep accumulating, and growth and inflation decline. Meanwhile, globalization has increased co-dependence: a rising number of countries can influence the world’s economic performance and its financial stability. Yet, the international monetary system …Read More
Perils of central banks as policymakers of last resort
S. Gürkaynak, Refet, Davig, Troy (2015), “Perils of central banks as policymakers of last resort”, Voxeu, 25 Nοεμβρίου Central banks around the world have been shouldering ever-increasing policy burdens beyond their core mandate of stabilising prices. This column considers the social welfare implications when central banks take on additional mandates that are usually the domain of other policymakers. Additional mandates are shown to worsen trade-offs faced by the central bank, while distorting …Read More