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Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks

Camacho, Máximo, Leiva-Leon, Danilo, Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, (2015), “Monetary policy expectations and aggregate EZ shocks”, Voxeu, 1 Δεκεμβρίου

Today’s monetary policy effectiveness depends on expectations of future monetary policy. Shocks affect such expectations, but the nature of the shock matters. This column presents evidence that negative demand shocks lead markets to expect looser policy in the short run. Negative supply shocks lead to expectations of looser policy in the medium to long run. Unexpected expansions – from either the supply or demand side – have no significant influence on markets’ expectations of future monetary policy.

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