Hugh, E., (2013), “Can demography explain Portugal’s growth slump before the crash?”, A Fistful Of Euros Blog, 06 Οκτωβρίου.
The issue being raised revolves around the current acceleration of emigration from countries on the EU periphery, largely towards the EU core. Typically the emigrants are young educated people who can’t find work. There is nothing especially surprising in this, since the tendency has long existed for people to move from more depressed areas to economically more dynamic ones. The exodus from Detroit in the United States immediately comes to mind. Or Scottish people getting on the bus to make the fateful journey from Edinburgh or Glasgow to London. The Schengen accord simply extends this process which used to take place within nation states to single market zones, or currency unions. But does this extension have consequences for the participating states which were not anticipated at the outset, and are these consequences all benign?
In addition, this time round in an important sense something is different since these movements are occurring in the context of a long and difficult economic adjustment, indeed one could almost argue that the people leaving form part of that adjustment. What’s more it is hard to accept that this is the kind of adjustment that countries like Spain and Portugal really need. Renovation in these countries implies these people and their talent are injected into the local economy to dynamise it, and not shot out the side like water from a high pressure hose with holes in it. So the big question I want to ask here is whether the economic programs which are being implemented in these countries take sufficient account of the demographic impacts they are inducing, and of the fact that the population loss involved – which most likely will become permanent – is going to cast a long shadow over the history of the countries concerned.
Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Παπακωνσταντίνου, Α., (2013), “Φυγή νέων επιστημόνων στο εξωτερικό: Brain drain? Brain gain?”, Παρατηρητήριο για την Κρίση, Άρθρο Γνώμης Νο.11, 03 Οκτωβρίου.
- Blanchard, O., Griffiths, M. and Gruss, B., (2013), “Boom, Bust, Recovery: Forensics of the Latvia Crisis”, Final Conference Draft, Fall 2013 Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, 19-20 Σεπτεμβρίου.
- Zaiceva, Anzelika, Zimmermann, Klaus F., (2012), “Returning Home at Times of Trouble? Return Migration of EU Enlargement Migrants during the Crisis”, IZA Discussion Paper, N.7111.