Dobbs, R., Lund, S., Koller, T. and Shwayder, A., (2013), “QE and ultra-low interest rates: Distributional effects and risks”, McKinsey Global Institute, Discussion Paper, Νοέμβριος.
There is widespread consensus that the conventional and unconventional monetary policies that world’s major central banks implemented in response to the global financial crisis prevented a deeper recession and higher unemployment than there otherwise would have been. These measures, along with a lack of demand for credit as a result of the recession, contributed to a decline in real and nominal interest rates to ultra-low levels that have been sustained over the past five years.
A new report from the McKinsey Global Institute examines the distributional effects of these ultra-low rates. It finds that there have been significant effects on different sectors in the economy in terms of income interest and expense. From 2007 to 2012, governments in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States collectively benefited by $1.6 trillion both through reduced debt-service costs and increased profits remitted from central banks (exhibit). Nonfinancial corporations—large borrowers such as governments—benefited by $710 billion as the interest rates on debt fell. Although ultra-low interest rates boosted corporate profits in the United Kingdom and the United States by 5 percent in 2012, this has not translated into higher investment, possibly as a result of uncertainty about the strength of the economic recovery, as well as tighter lending standards. Meanwhile, households in these countries together lost $630 billion in net interest income, although the impact varies across groups. Younger households that are net borrowers have benefited, while older households with significant interest-bearing assets have lost income.
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Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Den Haan, W. ed., (2013), Forward Guidance: Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants – A VoxEU.org eBook, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research.
- Darvas, Z. and Merler, S., (2013), “-15% to +4%: Taylor-rule interest rates for euro area countries”, Bruegel, 18 Σεπτεμβρίου.
- Henriksen, E., Kydland, F. and Šustek, R., (2013), “Independent monetary policies, synchronised outcomes”,VoxEU, 02 Οκτωβρίου.