Barnichon, R., (2013), “Unemployment Likely to Continue to Decline; Don’t Read Much into October Employment Report”, Brookings, Brookings on Job Numbers Blog, 05 December.
This post discusses my monthly update of the Barnichon-Nekarda model. For an introduction to the basic concepts used in this post, read my introductory post (Full details are available here.)
In September, the unemployment rate increased to 7.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the model had anticipated. However, because of the government shutdown in October and the unusual timing of the household survey, I don’t think we should put a lot of weight on the October unemployment report. Therefore, I do not put much weight on this month model’s forecast (Table 1) either and stick instead with last month’s forecast (here), which predicted a steady decline in unemployment going forward.
The worker flows out of unemployment and employment (Figures 1 and 2) display unusually large jumps in October, which suggests substantial measurement issues in the October unemployment report (and make this month’s forecast pretty uninformative).
This is not particularly surprising given the likely impact of the government shutdown on the “unemployment survey.”
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Σχετικές Αναρτήσεις
- Weeks, J., (2013), “The Faux European Recovery and Youth Unemployment”, Social Europe Journal, 03 December.
- Bernstein, J., (2013), “Paths to full employment”, The New York Times, Economix Blog, 02 Δεκεμβρίου.
- Lizoain, D., (2013), “The Jobs Recovery Is Always Two Years Away”, Social Europe Journal, 18 Νοεμβρίου.
- Thompson, S., (2013), “States of uncertainty: Youth unemployment in Europe”, Institute for Public Policy Research, Νοέμβριος.