European Commission (2014) “European Economic Forecast, Winter 2014“, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, Φεβρουάριος, Βρυξέλλες.
Europe’s economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time becoming more balanced across growth drivers. As it is typical following deep financial crises, however, the recovery remains fragile. Nevertheless, recent positive economic news means that the forecasts for GDP growth this year and next have been raised slightly since the autumn. EU GDP, which rose 0.1% in 2013, is now expected to rise 1.5% this year and 2.0% next year, while growth in the euro area, which was 0.4% for 2013 as a whole, is expected to be 1.2% in 2014 and 1.8% in 2015. After two years of contraction, domestic demand is gently firming, as the crisis’ legacy of excessive debt, financial fragmentation, economic uncertainty and the need for adjustment and fiscal consolidation fades, and confidence is improving. The fiscal stances of the EU and euro area this year are expected to be broadly neutral. At the same time, rising import demand means that external trade’s contribution to growth will become more muted. In line with these developments, unemployment should fall slightly from its peak, as the labour market turns the corner. The forecast for inflation in the EU and the euro area has been lowered significantly since the autumn. Inflation in the EU is now expected to dip to 1.2% in 2014 before rising again to 1.5% in 2015. In the euro area, inflation is seen at 1.0% in 2014 and 1.3% in 2015.
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- European Commission (2013) “European Economic Forecast – Autumn 2013“, Βρυξέλλες: Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή.
- European Commission (2013) “European Economic Forecast – Spring 2013“, Βρυξέλλες: Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή.
- OECD, (2013) “OECD Economic Outlook“, Vol. 2013/2, OECD Publishing.