Onder, H. & Pestieau, P. (2014) “For economies, age is not just a number“, VoxEU Organisation, 20 Μαΐου.
The world’s population is ageing, due to both increasing longevity and decreasing fertility. This column shows that the net effect of ageing on capital accumulation (and therefore growth) depends on which of these two factors dominates, and also on the structure of the pension system. Under a pension system with defined contributions, a reduction in fertility induces adjustments in savings and working life that unambiguously increase capital per worker.
An ageing world population is expected to shape the economic future of the globe. According to UN calculations, the total world population will increase by 40% and the median age will increase by 7.8 years by 2050. Compared to a few decades ago, these rates represent a significant deceleration in population growth and a sizeable acceleration in ageing.
What do these changes imply for different economies around the world? A popular debate about this topic is heating up, as shown by a recent special briefing and front-page coverage in The Economist (2014). The argument involves two opposing views. On one hand, ageing could hinder economic growth as the old save less, which translates into higher interest rates, lower investments, and lower labour productivity. On the other hand, ageing could actually increase growth if people adapt by saving more and working longer.
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Acemoglu, D., Naidu, S., Robinson, A. J. & Restrepo, P. (2014) “Democracy causes economic development?“, VoxEU Organisation, 19 Μαΐου.
- Onaran, O. & Stockhammer, E. (2014) “Raising wages should be a key component of economic growth strategies across the world“, LSE EUROPP, 07 Μαΐου.
- Schwan, Alexander, Sail, Etienne (2013) “Assessing the economic and budgetary impact of linking retirement ages and pension benefits to increases in longevity“, European Economy, Economic Papers, N. 512.