European Central Bank (2014) “Monthly Bulletin“, ECB Eurosystem, Ιούνιος.
ECONOMIC AND MONETARY DEVELOPMENTS
1 THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT OF THE EURO AREA
The global economy remains on a gradual recovery path, although the growth momentum moderated somewhat in the first quarter of 2014 as a result of temporary factors mainly affecting the United States and China. As the adverse effects of these factors are gradually waning, global activity should gather pace in the period ahead, supported by both advanced and emerging market economies. Nevertheless, the underlying trends continue to suggest a shift in growth dynamics in favour of advanced economies, with the global economic recovery remaining modest overall. Global trade momentum has softened since the beginning of the year, in line with the slowdown in activity. Global inflation picked up slightly in the first quarter, but remains low, reflecting muted energy price developments and persistent economic slack.
1.1 GLOBAL ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND TRADE
Global economic activity is continuing to recover gradually, notwithstanding some moderate weakness in the first quarter of 2014. Provisional estimates for the first quarter suggest that GDP growth in the G20 excluding the euro area stood at 0.7% quarter on quarter, which is slightly lower than in the second half of 2013, although developments continued to diverge across countries (see Table 1). Temporary factors, notably the unusually cold winter in the United States and the shutdown of heavy-industry plants in China to limit air pollution, adversely affected consumption and investment in the respective countries. Meanwhile, in Japan the anticipated increase in consumption tax on 1 April 2014 resulted in the frontloading of consumption and stronger GDP growth in the first quarter of the year. In the United Kingdom, economic activity has remained strong on the back of robust domestic demand. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine have taken a toll on the short-term growth outlook of the region, raising concerns about potentially broader spillovers to the world economy should these tensions escalate (see Box 3 in the article in this issue of the Monthly Bulletin).
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- European Central Bank (2014) “Monthly Bulletin“, Φεβρουάριος.
- Kahn, R. (2014) “Lowflation: Should We Fear Stable Prices?“, Global Economics Monthly: June 2014, Council on Foreign Relations, 10 Ιουνίου.
- Levy, M. (2014) “ECB: An appropriate monetary policy“, VoxEU Organisation, 16 Μαΐου.