Bacchetta, P. & Benhima, K. (2014) “The role of corporate saving in global rebalancing“, VoxEU Organisation, 24 Αυγούστου.
Among the various explanations behind global imbalances, the role of corporate saving has received relatively little attention. This column argues that corporate saving is quantitatively relevant, and proposes a theory that is consistent with the stylised facts and useful for understanding the current phase of global rebalancing. The theory implies that, while the economic contraction originating in developed countries has pushed interest rates towards the zero lower bound, the recent growth slowdown in emerging countries could push them out of it.
The increase in global imbalances in the last decade posed a theoretical challenge for international macroeconomics. Why did some less-developed countries with a higher need for capital, like China, lend to richer countries? The inconsistency of standard open-economy dynamic models with actual global capital flows had already been stressed before (e.g. by Lucas 1990), but the sensitivity to this issue became more acute with increasing global imbalances. This stimulated the development of several alternative theoretical frameworks. Gourinchas and Rey (2014) provide a recent survey of these theories. But in the aftermath of the Global Crisis we have observed a substantial reduction in global imbalances. For example, China’s current-account surplus has declined from 10% of GDP in 2007 to about 2.5% currently. Are these recent theories consistent with this decline, and are they useful in shedding light on the process of ‘global rebalancing’?
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- ICAP (2014) “Corporate Insolvencies in Europe, 2013/14“, Creditreform, Wirtschaftsforschung, Ιούλιος.
- Laeven, L. & Ratnovski, L. (2014) “Corporate governance of banks and financial stability“, VoxEU Organisation, 21 Ιουλίου.
- Μασούρος, Παύλος (2014) “Corporate Governance and the Great Recession: An Alternative Explanation for Germany’s Success in the Post-2008 World“, Παρατηρητήριο για την Κρίση, 30 Iανουαρίου.