Mitchell, B. (2014) “European Employment Strategy – barely a new job in sight“, Bill Mitchell Blog-Modern Monetary Theory … macroeconomic reality, 17 Σεπτεμβρίου.
Eurostat released the latest – Employment – data for July 2014 last week (September 12, 2014) and announced that total employment was up by 0.2 per cent in the euro area. For those that study the data closely you will not be confused. But for the casual observer you might have cause to puzzle. Has this been a sudden turnaround given that last quarter employment growth was firmly negative in Europe? The clue is that Eurostat publish two different measures of employment. The first (published last week) is derived from the National Accounts estimates whereas the other is derived from the Labour Force Survey. The latter doesn’t paint a very rosy picture at all. But whatever these data nuances, the European Commission is still facing a disaster and their latest policy response will do nothing much to alleviate the problem. But then why should we be surprised about that?
The following table compares the Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates of employment growth for Quarters 1 and 2 (where available) for 15-64 year olds with the National Account estimates. I added another column from the LFS estimates, which show the percentage employment change since the last peak in the third quarter 2008.
The next Table shows the LFS estimates for the employment growth in Quarter 1 2014 and the change since the peak for European youth (15-24 year olds). The data signifies a disaster.
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- OECD (2014) OECD Employment Outlook 2014 – Editorial, OECD Publishing.
- Ekkehard Ernst (2014) “Backing the wrong horse, The solution to ease mass unemployment is at hand, but policymakers across Europe are too blind to see it“, The European Magazine, 02 Σεπτεμβρίου.
- Lima, B. C., Grasselli, M. R., Wang, X.-S. & Wu, J. (2013) “Destabilizing a stable crisis: Employment persistence and government intervention in macroeconomics“, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, No. 30 (2014), pp. 30-51.