Kirkegaard, F. J. (2014) “When Will the ECB Move on Monetary Stimulus?“, RealTime Economic Issues Watch, Peterson Institute for International Economics, 03 Δεκεμβρίου.
The European Central Bank’s (ECB) final meeting at which all participating national central bank (NCB) governors get to vote takes place on December 4. In January a new rotational system starts in which only 21 votes will be cast for monetary policy decision—15 NCB governors and 6 members of the ECB Executive Board. Perhaps more significant, it will also be the last fully anonymous ECB meeting, because accounts of its monetary policy discussions are to be published in 2015. Beyond these changes, a new schedule of meetings starts next year, once every six weeks instead of monthly. Hence for three calendar months a year there will be no monetary policy meeting in the euro area, and the governors rotated off will retain their votes on annual ECB monetary policy decisions.
The Data Influencing the ECB’s Monetary Decisions
Most of the attention about the ECB meeting does not concern these historical footnotes, of course. The public will be looking for its decisions on monetary stimulus—and what form such stimulus might take. To understand the ECB’s thinking, one must look at the latest data.
The ECB is far from achieving its inflation target of close to—but below—2 percent over the medium term. Recent data [pdf] indicate price increases dropped to an estimated 0.3 percent in November. The case for additional monetary stimulus appears clear from the statement by the ECB president, Mario Draghi, that inflation expectations needed to be raised “as fast as possible.”
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Gilbert, Μ. (2014) “ECB Needs Japanese Lessons“, Bloomberg View, 05 Νοεμβρίου.
- Durden, T. (2014) “The ECB Changes Its Mind Which Bonds It Will Monetize, Then It Changes It Again“, ΘZeroHedge, 20 Οκτωβρίου.
- Tonveronachi, M. (2014 ) “The ECB and the Single European Financial Market: A Proposal to Repair Half of a Flawed Design“, Levy Economics Institute Publications, The State of the US and World Economies Public Policy Brief No. 137, Σεπτέμβριος.