Constantinescu, C., Mattoo, A. & Ruta, M. (2015) “Explaining the global trade slowdown“, VoxEU Organisation, 18 Ιανουαρίου.
Not only is world trade lower than its pre-Crisis level, but it is also growing slower than GDP. This column examines the relationship between trade and GDP in the last four decades. The findings indicate that roughly half of the slowdown is driven by structural rather than cyclical factors. Trade itself has become less responsive to GDP in recent years. In particular, supply chains are maturing after years of rapid expansion.
After bouncing back from the historic low in the aftermath of the Global Crisis, world trade (total trade volumes) grew by 6.2% in 2011, 2.8% in 2012, and 3.0% in 2013 (Figure 1). This growth in trade volumes is substantially lower than the pre-Crisis average of 7.1% (1987-2007), and is slightly below the growth rate of world GDP in real terms, which has hovered around 3% in recent years.
Σχετικές αναρτήσεις:
- Boz, Ε., Bussière, Μ. & Marsilli, C. (2014) “Recent slowdown in global trade: Cyclical or structural“, VoxEU Organisation, 12 Νοεμβρίου.
- Louri-Dendrinou, Ε. (2014) “Economic and financial changes since the onset of the global and euro area crises“, LSE EUROPP Blog, Greece: Taking Stock, 06 Νοεμβρίου.
- Roubini, N. (2014) “The Single-Engine Global Economy“, Social Europe Journal, 04 Νοεμβρίου.